Review
Wall Street’s climb to record highs has come with conspicuously little volatility. The S&P 500 has gone 377 days without a 2.05% sell-off. That’s the longest stretch for the benchmark since the great financial crisis, according to FactSet data compiled by CNBC. The index hasn’t experienced a gain of at least 2.15% in that time either.
— Brian Evans, “The Stock Market Is in Its Longest Stretch Without a 2% Sell-Off Since the Financial Crisis,” www.cnbc.com, June 21, 2024.
The 21% U.S. corporate tax rate is the biggest single variable in the sprawling 2025 tax debate, and the two parties are trying to turn that dial in opposite directions with major consequences for companies’ profits and federal revenue. The rate could climb as high as 28% if Democrats sweep November’s elections and move as low as 15% if Republicans gain full power.
— Richard Rubin, “Corporate Tax Rate Spurs Political Fight With More Than $1 Trillion at Stake,” Wall Street Journal, June 17, 2024.
You don’t see a Full Moon on the summer solstice very often. But it happened this past week, and as the seasons change during the current Full Moon, financial markets may also be setting up for a change of trend.
Both a change of season and a Full Moon are often associated with sudden changes of trend, although most of the time, these trend changes are short-lived. However, since it is getting late in the cycles of some markets, such as stocks, any change of trend is liable to last longer than just a few days. The later a bull market is in its cycle, the more vulnerable it is to a sudden reversal to the bottom of that cycle. In the case of U.S. stocks, we note that it is very late in their 4-year cycles. In fact, in only two cases in the last 130 years, the four-year U.S. stock market cycle topped out past the 49th month after it began. June 2024 is now 51 months following the 4-year cycle low of March 2020.
Most of the world’s stock indices are mired in congestion over the past two months. The notable exceptions are the NASDAQ and S&P in the U.S. and the NIFTY index of India, which each made new all-time highs late last week. China’s Shanghai Composite may be an exception, too, because on Friday, it dropped to its lowest level in five weeks. Still, divergences continue to mount as these few indices make new all-time highs unconfirmed by new all-time highs in other indices in their region.
As mentioned above, this is a concern because it is late in their longer-term cycles, and divergences like this are often bearish signals. It’s as if a storm is forecasted, and the clouds are beginning to gather on the horizon. Plus, we are moving from soft, harmonious aspects of Jupiter to Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto between April and June and into a 9-month series of hard, square aspects from Jupiter to Saturn starting in August. With Jupiter in the air sign of Gemini now, the winds of change could soon pick up their force.
Gold and Silver were interesting again as both had smart rallies all week that suddenly ended on Friday. This was yet another score for the new MMA Solar/Lunar Reversal App, which issued a buy signal in Gold from a low that in Gold on June 13 (when it dropped to 2310.90) and then a sell signal from a high on June 21 that was met as prices reached 2382.60, the weekly high. By the close on Friday, Gold was near 2330. However, we have another buy indicator arising in the next 10 days as we approach Neptune turning retrograde (see below).
In other markets, Crude Oil soared to a new multi-week high of 81.78 on Friday, confirming its primary cycle trough at 72.40 on June 4. Bitcoin, on the other hand, exhibited weakness, dropping to a low of 63,274 on Friday. It’s nearing important support as Saturn turns retrograde, conjoining Uranus in BTC’s first trade chart next weekend. Its orb of influence is already in play.
Short-Term Geocosmics
Home prices rose in May to a new high, with low inventory continuing to spur bidding wars among home buyers in some markets…. Those high prices, paired with elevated mortgage rates, have limited the number of sales this spring—typically the busiest season for home buying. Sales of previously owned homes decreased 0.7% from the prior month, the third straight monthly decline. On an annual basis, existing-home sales, which make up most of the housing market, fell 2.8%. Even though demand is low, home prices are still rising because high mortgage rates are deterring potential sellers from listing their homes, keeping the supply of homes on the market lower than normal.
—Nicole Friedman, “Home Prices Hit a Record High,” www.wsj.com, June 21, 2024.
We now switch seasons, literally.
If you live in the northern hemisphere, this is the period of the longest days of the year and is known as the summer solstice. It also begins the sun sign of Cancer in Western Astrology, which traditionally rules the home and family, and by extension, the nurturing and protection of loved ones, or even country, as in patriotism. Cancer is a water sign that pertains to emotions, as opposed to Gemini, the sun sign we are leaving, which is an air sign and hence more cerebral.
Cancer’s nature is also defensive rather than offensive. A more pronounced offensive focus is due in the following month when we enter the fire sign of Leo on July 22. For now, investors (and people in general) may lean more toward being defensive in their approach to finances, politics, and all relationships (professional or personal).
The defensive posturing of investors may be heightened this week as first Saturn and then Neptune turn retrograde, on June 29 and July 2, respectively. Saturn, like Cancer, is more cautious and careful in judgment than most signs. It is less aggressive by nature, more like a wall that resists force. Thus, when Saturn is highlighted, many markets may be in the process of making lows in price. If, instead, they are making highs, then something may trigger investors’ fears of loss (or loss of profit), and thus selling begins and markets reverse to the downside. Saturn stations (retrograde and direct dates) have proven to be very strong reversal signals, especially when primary cycles (highs or lows) are due within an orb of ten trading days.
Neptune retrograde is also a strong reversal signature. In fact, in our studies published in The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles, its historical frequency to primary cycles was a whopping 86%! That’s one of the highest geocosmic signatures we discovered for stock indices. But it also has a strong correlation to rallies in the Gold market.
However, there is a different character to Neptune stationary than Saturn. Whereas Saturn demands accountability and proof before trusting, Neptune does not. Neptune is much more vulnerable, sensitive, and prone to be easily influenced by the crowd (i.e., media). This is a time when con artists, manipulators, and propagandists may prey upon the vulnerable, the naïve, for under Neptune’s presence, people tend to be more gullible. Therefore, this is a time when false rumors abound and fact-checkers will be busier than usual (+/- 10 days). The lesson is not to believe everything you hear or read unless it can be verified. People may try to convince you of their views and needs without the complete disclosure of all the facts that you need to make an informed decision. It’s possible the effort to convince others of their narratives involves intentional untruths as well.
In terms of financial markets, Saturn and Neptune turning retrograde close in time to one another has a strong correlation to major moves in stocks, Gold, and Crude Oil. In terms of politics, it heightens the possibility of errors, paranoia, confusion, bumbling, and being caught in a lie. For traders, this is a time to recognize whether a market move is the result of a rumor or fact. If it is a rumor, the move may be short-lived. In the trading community, the saying goes, “Buy the rumor, sell the fact.” It can apply to one’s personal life, too, especially in matters of the heart. It can arouse a feeling of infatuation and unbridled euphoria about…something or someone. But does it have legs it can really stand on? That’s what Saturn wants to know.
So, together, Saturn and Neptune can exhibit a scene of “popping a bubble.” Don’t fall in love with the bubble or it’s trouble. Fall in love with virtue. The former may have a thrilling beginning, but the latter has a happier ending, which is what Saturn and Neptune really wish for.
ANNOUNCEMENTS
NOTE 1: ONE MORE MONTH TO USE THE SPECIAL OFFER ON THE NEW MMA SOLAR/LUNAR FORECASTING APP FOR IPHONE!
Sign up now and automatically receive a FREE 3-day trial plus the $19.99/mo. rate until July 23. Search “Merriman Market Analyst” in the Apple App Store to take advantage of this introductory offer. After July 23, the regular rate of $39.99/mo. or yearly rate of $299.00 will be available. You no longer need a QR code to get the free trial or introductory special offer!
To learn more about the MMA app, click here.
This app is an ideal tool to have handy if you are a short-term swing trader looking for high-probability dates that identify isolated lows and highs in the DJIA, Gold, and Silver markets. Since it was launched four weeks ago, it has been uncannily accurate in identifying swing lows and highs in each market.
How does it work? Based on historical frequencies, the higher the weighted value, the greater the probability of a swing trade reversal in the following 1-7 trading days (usually 2-5 days). Built into the app are instructions for ideal setups and explanatory FAQs. It’s pretty amazing!
Update: The MMA Solar/Lunar App gives each market an average of one trade per week every five trading days, creating a more active experience than the MMA Daily report (average of one trade per market every three weeks) or the MMA Weekly report (average of one trade every 3-18 weeks for each of the 15 markets tracked). The Solar/Lunar App is designed for “swing trades” looking for 2-5% moves from isolated lows or highs. If you like active trading signals based on solar/lunar combinations, the MMA App is for you!
NOTE 2: THE JUNE-JULY ISSUE OF The MMA Monthly Cycles Report Plus+, edited by Pouyan Zolfagharnia, will be issued this week. This market letter has become a very popular addition to the MMA Cycles Report (it’s less technical, more visual, and contains horoscopes of current importance, high-quality analysis, and updates on MMA Cycles Report markets). The mid-month addendum to the MMA Cycles Report has stunning graphics and charts (people love it!) and is very readable. It contains more illustrations and references to geocosmics than most MMA Cycles reports and is only available for subscription to those who also subscribe to the MMA Monthly Cycles Report. Each issue offers an update on NASDAQ, Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil. If you wish to try this month’s addendum, along with the latest issue of the MMA Monthly Cycles Report, sign up online at the link above. A subscription for a monthly copy of both reports costs $55. That will give you both the most recent June copy of the MMA Cycles Report and the monthly MMA Cycles Report Plus+ addendum coming out this week. For further information and ordering instructions, please click here.
NOTE 3: ONE MORE WEEK! June 30, 2024, 1:30 PM EDT: A Special “MMA Options Webinar” with Derek Panaia and hosted by Raymond Merriman. This webinar will be very timely because it is right in the middle of the Saturn and Neptune retrogrades that occur on June 29 and July 2, respectively. Our market timing indicators project major moves in several markets to start around the time of those retrogrades. We want to be prepared with limited-risk option strategies on Gold, Silver, the S&P, and possibly Crude Oil or Soybeans, as primary cycle (or secondary) lows or highs may occur then. The cost is still $95 and that includes 1-3 additional follow-up adjustments via email from Derek just this one time. In future options webinars, there will be an additional charge for special follow-ups if they prove to be as valuable as we expect. SAVE THE DATE: Sunday, June 30, at 1:30 PM EDT (that’s 7:30 PM in Zurich, Frankfort, Amsterdam, and Paris, and 10:30 AM in Los Angeles). Click here to register! Note: Keep in mind that options trading is speculative, and this webinar is designed for speculators who have some basic knowledge of options. For those who don’t have that basic knowledge, MMA offers a recording of Derek’s webinar on option principles on its website.
NOTE 4: The MMA 2024 Investment Retreat Is Now Open for Registration!!! This special event will take place on September 19-22, 2024, at the Rikli Balance Hotel, located in the Julian Alps region of beautiful Lake Bled, Slovenia. This will be MMA’s first investment retreat in Europe since 2015. You won’t want to miss this chance to hear the outlooks and wealth-building strategies using MMA market timing methods by top MMA analysts Raymond Merriman (USA), Gianni Di Poce (USA), Ulric Aspegrén (Switzerland), Pouyan Zolfagharnia (UK), Irma Schogt (Netherlands), Matthieu Kaiser (France), Rita Perea (USA), Vincent Wang (Singapore), Wyatt Fellows (USA), plus special guest speakers Claude Weiss (Switzerland) and Aleksandar Imsiragic (Serbia). Special attention will be given to the stock markets of the USA, Germany, China, and Japan, plus Gold, Silver, Copper, Bitcoin, Wheat, Crude Oil, Real Estate, and interest rates. There is nothing quite like a life-altering MMA Investment Retreat! Sign up early if you wish to attend in person to secure one of the limited rooms reserved for our group at the fabulous Rikli Balance Hotel right on Lake Bled. To register for this spectacular event, click here. To see the full brochure, schedule, topics, and speakers’ bios, click here. To see a list of questions and answers (FAQs) regarding the Investment Retreat, click here.
NOTE 5: The MMA Weekly YouTube show, Geocosmic Week in Review and Look Ahead, with Gianni Di Poce, is conducted on Wednesday evenings! Each 5- to 20-minute FREE episode reviews the previous week’s market activity and offers a preview of the geocosmic signatures in effect for the coming week and beyond.
NOTE 6: MMA’s Free Weekly Column Podcast Is Available on SPOTIFY, APPLE, and AMAZON! Now you can listen to a podcast of this weekly column by Thomas Miller on Saturdays! Just follow Merriman Market Analyst on Spotify or Apple to listen to all our episodes. A new podcast episode will be released every weekend. This is a FREE service and is available to everyone. Check out our podcasts on Apple, Spotify, and Amazon Music. It makes for great listening!
EVENTS
June 30, 2024, 1:30 PM EDT: A Special “MMA Options Webinar” with Derek Panaia and hosted by Raymond Merriman. Click here to register! See “Announcements” above for further information.
September 19–22, 2024: MMA’s 2024 Investment Retreat. Save the dates!!! We will be hosting our 2024 Investment Retreat in Europe for the first time since 2015. You won’t want to miss this chance to meet with the top MMA analysts (plus special guest speakers Claude Weiss and Aleksandar Imsiragic) live and hear our long-term investment and wealth-building strategies using MMA market timing methods. Learn when and at what price to scale in on the 18-year cycle due in world stock indices is now entering the time band for perhaps the best long-term investment opportunities in over a decade. The location is the beautiful Lake Bled in Slovenia, a premier (and affordable) destination in the Julian Alps, with a historic castle nestled in the mountains where the Saturday evening banquet will take place. The cost is $3500, but only $3000 if you register early, before August 1. Registration is now open! The event will be available in person or online. However, note that all rooms at the conference hotel (Rikli Balance) are now sold out. A list of nearby hotels is available on the MMA website, and a waiting list is now being created for those who wish to book a room at the Rikli Balance Hotel if a cancellation occurs. Those who wish to attend online will receive a link to see the event as it unfolds, or they can watch the event a few hours later, as the recordings of the presentations will be posted for download to those who register. For a brochure of the event, click here.
March 7-9, 2025: Cosmic Patterns Inc. presents its “Convergence 2025” conference in Orlando, Florida. This will be one of the top astrological conferences of 2025 and will include a track on “Research and Financial Markets.” MMA market analysts Ray Merriman, Gianni Di Poce, Pouyan Zolfagharnia, Ulric Aspegrén, and Wiebke Held will speak, along with well-known financial astrologer Christeen Skinner of the U.K. There will also be a number of well-known professional astrologers speaking, including Lynn Bell, Charlotte Benson, Öner Döşer, Pam Gallagher, Demetra George, Aleksandar Imsiragic, Dr. Lea Imsiragic, Rick Levine, Darri Low Murphy, Anne Ortelee, Joni Patry, Kathy Rose, Gisele Terry, and Fei Cochrane. For further information, please go to https://cosmicpatternsconference.com/. You can also hear and read about this exciting gathering on YouTube (click here). This will be the premier astrology conference of 2025 and includes a dynamic track on Financial Astrology. Looking forward to seeing many of you there!
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from the perspective of a cycles analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and their potential effect on financial markets.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.