MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING OCTOBER 23, 2023 ©
October 20, 2023
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the run-up in long-term Treasury yields could allow the central bank to suspend a historic run of interest-rate increases so long as recent progress on inflation continues. That is in part because the swift rise in long-term rates over the past month could slow the economy, effectively substituting for another Fed hike if higher borrowing costs are sustained. – Nick Timiraos, “Jerome Powell Signals Fed Will Extend Interest-Rate Pause,” Wall Street Journal, October 19, 2023.
The most-actively traded gold futures contract jumped 1.2% Friday to cross $2,000 a troy ounce for the first time since late July. The war between Hamas and Israel has made haven-asset gold, which is prized for its stability during times of market turmoil, more popular. The yellow metal has rallied about 8% since the conflict began. – Hardika Singh, “Gold Prices Top $2,000 For the First Time Since July,” Wall Street Journal Online, October 20, 2023.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING OCTOBER 16, 2023 ©
October 13, 2023
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“Oil, U.S. Treasuries, and gold prices rose on Friday, with crude soaring nearly 6%, on safe-haven buying driven by the escalating Middle East conflict as Israel urged civilians to leave the northern Gaza Strip. – Caroline Valetkevitch, “Oil, Treasuries, Gold Prices Jump Amid Mideast Fears,” Reuters, October 13, 2023.
The war in Ukraine, along with the unprecedented attacks in Israel by Palestinian militant group Hamas last weekend, may have “far-reaching impacts on energy and food markets, global trade and geopolitical relationships,” Dimon said in a statement accompanying the bank’s third-quarter earnings release. “This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades,” Jamie Dimon said. – Megan Henney, “JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns: ‘This May be the Most Dangerous Time the World has seen in Decades’: Sounds Alarm over Economic Outlook Amid Israel-Hamas War,” www.foxbusiness.com, October 13, 2023.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING OCTOBER 9, 2023 ©
October 06, 2023
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Stocks rallied Friday even after the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data and a pop in Treasury yields. The U.S. economy added 336,000 jobs in September, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected 170,000 jobs. Stocks posted a stunning turnaround on Friday, after initially falling on the stronger-than-expected jobs report. At its session low, the Dow had fallen as much as 272 points; it surged by more than 400 points at the height of the rally. – Sarah Min and Hakyung Kim, “Dow Soars Nearly 300 Points Friday After Hot Jobs Report,” October 6, 2023, www.cnbc.com.
Government! Three-fourths parasitic and the other fourth stupid fumbling. – Robert Heinlein, “Stranger in a Strange Land,” G.P. Putnam’s Sons, 1961.
Members of the US Congress are now incapable of doing anything. Financial markets are not surprised that members of the US Congress are incapable of doing anything. Investors only care whether House Republicans can get the extreme wing under control long enough to elect a speaker before the next government shutdown in mid-November. Dr. Paul Donovan, “US Politicians are Incapable of Doing Anything,” UBS Morning Comment, October 4, 2023.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING OCTOBER 2, 2023 ©
September 29, 2023
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated on Friday as investors followed the latest news about a potential government shutdown and ended what has been a tough month for stocks. – Alex Harring, Sarah Min, and Pia Singh, “S&P 500 and Nasdaq Wrap Worst Month in 2023,” www.cnbc.com, September 29, 2023.
This was the week that Venus made its third and final square to Uranus (Friday, September 29). One of the outcomes of a hard aspect between Venus and Uranus can be either a breakout of multi-month support/resistance, or a reversal. In this passage, it is coinciding with breakouts so far. Last week witnessed several global stock indices break one support after another. The same happened with Gold, which fell to a low of 1862.30 on Friday, its lowest price since early March.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING SEPTEMBER 25, 2023 ©
September 22, 2023
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On Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials surprised markets by signaling interest rates won’t fall as much as previously planned. The tweak might be more important than it looks. In their projections and commentary, some officials hint that rates might be higher not just for longer, but forever. – Greg Ip, “Higher Rates Not Just for Longer – Maybe Forever,” Wall Street Journal, September 22, 2023.
The United Auto Workers is expanding strikes to 38 parts and distribution locations across 20 states, targeting General Motors and Stellantis, UAW President Shawn Fain said Friday morning. The union will not initiate additional strikes at Ford Motor, as the company has proven it’s “serious about reaching a deal,” Fain said. – Michael Wayland, “UAW Targets 38 Facilities at GM and Stellantis for Expanded Strikes,” www.cnbc.com, September 22, 2023.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING SEPTEMBER 18, 2023 ©
September 15, 2023
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The United Auto Workers officially went on strike against the “Big Three” Detroit automakers early Friday, potentially imperiling an already-fragile U.S. economy. An extended work stoppage risks causing billions in damage to the economy…. Still, the strikes are limited in scope so far as the UAW seeks to preserve its $825 million strike fund, which would support a walkout for about 11 weeks by the 146,000 union members. – Megan Henney, “UAW strike Could Slam the US Economy,” www.foxbusiness.com, September 15, 2023.
“It’s the one constant in life. If you build something worth having, someone’s going to try to take it.” – Kevin Costner as John Dutton, in “Yellowstone,” Series 3, Paramount Pictures.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING SEPTEMBER 11, 2023 ©
September 08, 2023
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Revisions to economic data are widespread and normal. But occasionally the revisions are so big that they upend our shared understanding of what’s going on. The problem isn’t new, but it’s getting worse. Timely data is typically based on surveys, and even companies can’t be bothered to fill in surveys any more. Early reporting of figures that are later revised away can send investors in entirely the wrong direction. It can embed an understanding of the economy that takes a long time to be corrected. At worst it can lead to the misallocation of capital and influence government policy or interest rates. – James Mackintosh, “Economic Data Lead Markets and Governments Astray,” Wall Street Journal, September 8, 2023.
North Korea-linked hackers have stolen hundreds of millions of crypto to fund the regime’s nuclear weapons programs, research shows. “In recent years, there has been a marked rise in the size and scale of cyber-attacks against cryptocurrency-related businesses by North Korea,” said TRM Labs in a June discussion with North Korea experts. – Sheila Chiang, “North Korean Hackers Have Allegedly Stolen Hundreds of Millions in Crypto to Fund Nuclear Programs,” www.cnbc.com, September 6, 2023.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING SEPTEMBER 4, 2023 ©
September 01, 2023
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NOTE: U.S. markets are closed this Monday, September 4, in observance of the Labor Day holiday.
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Hiring cooled this summer and unemployment rose in August, signs the labor market is moderating in the face of high interest rates. U.S. employers added 187,000 jobs last month, while payrolls in June and July were revised down a combined 110,000. The monthly gain in August was well less than the average pace over the prior year, and far below the roughly 400,000 average monthly gain in 2022. The unemployment rate was 3.8% last month, up from 3.5% in July. Gwynn Guilford, ”Job Gains Eased in Summer Months, Unemployment Increased in August,” Wall Street Journal, September 1, 2023.
Imagine the planets as ships at sea. Imagine their movement through the heavens, as seen from earth (geocentric), as waves on the sea. There are eight planets in our solar system, as seen from Earth (not counting the Earth). At various times, each planet will appear to be going backwards through the heavens, which is known as its retrograde cycle. Six of the planets go retrograde at least once during the year. Venus and Mars will do so once every 19 or 26 months, respectively, while Mercury will go retrograde every 88 days or 3-4 times/year. It is not uncommon to see 1-3 planets retrograde at one time. Four is not too unusual. Five or more is considered a lot. Between August 28 through September 3, six planets will be retrograde. On September 3, Venus will turn direct, dropping it back to five. However, the next day, September 4, Jupiter will turn retrograde, making it six planets retrograde once again until September 15, when Mercury turns direct.