Merriman Market Analyst
Free Weekly Forecast
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING SEPTEMBER 11, 2023 ©
September 8, 2023
Listen on Spotify, Apple, and Amazon Watch on YouTube REVIEW AND PREVIEW Revisions to economic data are widespread and normal. But occasionally the revisions are so big that they upend our shared understanding of what’s going on. The problem isn’t new, but it’s getting worse. Timely data is typically based on surveys, and even...
Read MoreMMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING SEPTEMBER 4, 2023 ©
September 1, 2023
Listen on Spotify, Apple, and Amazon Watch on YouTube NOTE: U.S. markets are closed this Monday, September 4, in observance of the Labor Day holiday. REVIEW AND PREVIEW Hiring cooled this summer and unemployment rose in August, signs the labor market is moderating in the face of high interest rates....
Read MoreMMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JULY 3, 2023 ©
June 30, 2023
NOTE: U.S. financial markets will be closed for half a day on Monday and all day on Tuesday in observance of the July 4 Independence Day holiday. REVIEW AND PREVIEW (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell has signaled that officials are prepared to raise rates at the Fed’s July 25-26 meeting after holding...
Read MoreMMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JUNE 26, 2023 ©
June 23, 2023
REVIEW AND PREVIEW U.S. stocks fell Friday with the S&P 500 index on track for its worst week since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, suggesting the three-month rally may be coming to an end. “U.S. Stocks Fall to Cap Off Worst Week Since March,” June 23, 2023,...
Read MoreMMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JUNE 19, 2023 ©
June 16, 2023
REVIEW AND PREVIEW The Federal Reserve did not change interest rates (it was not a skip, according to Fed Chair Powell). The press conference presumably did intend to sound hawkish, and presumably did not intend to sound economically incoherent. The fabled “dot plots” signaled two rate hikes—given how these are...
Read MoreMMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JUNE 12, 2023 ©
June 9, 2023
Listen to this Free Weekly Forecast HERE on our Spotify Channel, read by Thomas Miller REVIEW AND PREVIEW It’s official! The S&P 500’s (SP500) longest bear market since the 1940s has come to an end. The benchmark index closed up 0.6% to 4,294 on Thursday, vaulting it back into bull territory with...
Read MoreMMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING MAY 29, 2023 ©
May 26, 2023
PLEASE NOTE: THERE WILL BE NO COLUMN NEXT WEEK AS WE WILL BE CONDUCTING THE MMA 2023 INVESTMENT RETREAT (SEE ANNOUNCEMENTS BELOW – LAST WEEK TO SIGN UP). ALSO, U.S. MARKETS ARE CLOSED ON MONDAY IN OBSERVANCE OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. REVIEW AND PREVIEW Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told...
Read MoreMMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING MAY 22, 2023 ©
May 19, 2023
REVIEW AND PREVIEW Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday that stresses in the banking sector could mean that interest rates won’t have to be as high to control inflation. – Jeff Cox, Fed Chair Powell Says Rates May Not Have to Rise as Much as Expected to Curb Inflation,...
Read MoreMMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING MAY 15, 2023 ©
May 12, 2023
REVIEW AND PREVIEW Banks are in trouble because of rising interest rates. Rates have climbed because inflation is high. And inflation is too high because demand is hot. One way to cool demand would be for the federal government to cut spending—which happens to be what Republicans, who control the...
Read MoreMMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING MAY 8, 2023 ©
May 5, 2023
REVIEW AND PREVIEW Nonfarm payrolls increased 253,000 for the month, beating Wall Street estimates for growth of 180,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate was 3.4% against an estimate for 3.6% and tied for the lowest level since 1969. Average hourly earnings, a key inflation barometer,...
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