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REVIEW AND PREVIEW
Greenspan suggests the nearly 50-year low unemployment rate, coupled with American corporations clamoring for workers, will force up wages and inflation. "Ultimately prices take hold," he said. "This is the tightest market, labor market, I've ever seen. But concurrently, we have a very slow productivity increase." – Berkeley Lovelace, “Ex-Fed Chief Greenspan: This is the Tightest Labor Market I Have Ever Seen,” www.cnbc.com, October 18, 2018.
Ongoing concerns about Italy's spending proposals are likely to remain a negative for the (Euro) currency. The European Commission on Thursday sent Rome a letter calling a draft budget an "unprecedented" breach of EU fiscal rules, the first step of a procedure that could end with Brussels rejecting the budget and fining Italy. – Reuters, “Euro, Sterling, Gain on Report that UK May Drop Key Brexit Demand,” www.cnbc.com, October 19, 2018.
Analyst expect ratings agencies to lower Italy's credit rating next week. David Reid, “A Ratings Downgrade for Italy is Now Forecast to Happen Within Days,” www.cnbc.com, October 19, 2018.
The decline in world stock indices following their highs near the Venus retrograde on October 5 continued last week. Many indices started out low, then had a huge rally into Tuesday, and then another sell-off. In most cases, the selloff did not fall below last Monday’s low, but it was a disappointing let down after Tuesday’s large rally. The concerns were related to the themes of Venus (banking policies) in Scorpio (debt). That is, Italy’s recent budget proposal included much more spending than previously expected, and the continued criticism by the USA Administration of the Federal Reserve Board’s interest rate policies have caused investors to re-consider the growth prospects of stocks. In the first case, the decision by the Italian government to inflate its deficit spending plans is leading to a downgrade in its credit rating. It undermines investment plans in the entire Eurozone by those outside the Eurozone, for this becomes another inflationary factor. In the second case, the Fed is continuing its plans to raise rates because it doesn’t want inflation to get out of control. Critics, like President Trump, argue that inflation is mild and under control. But that’s today, before Jupiter enters the expansive sign of Sagittarius and squares Neptune, which is an inflationary combination that is starting in November 2018 and will be in force over the next year. The Fed is thinking about the future, and as Alan Greensman points out, the low unemployment and tight labor market are powerful forces that can — and probably will — lead to an inflationary spike sooner than later. These factors may account for the recent weakness in world equity and treasury markets, but they also factor in the recent rally in Gold and Silver.
SHORT-TERM GEOCOSMICS AND LONGER-TERM MUNDANE THOUGHTS
The U.S. government ran its largest budget deficit in six years during the fiscal year that ended last month, an unusual development in a fast-growing economy and a sign that — so far at least — tax cuts have restrained government revenue gains… The deficit is headed toward $1 trillion in the current fiscal year, the White House and Congressional Budget Office said. – Kate Davidson, “Deficit Swells as Tax Cuts Take Bite,” Wall Street Journal, October 16, 2018.
President Trump asked his cabinet to find ways to find ways to cut their budgets by 5% next year, targeting government spending after an official tally showed Republicans’ tax cuts drive the federal budget deficit to its widest level in six years… During last year’s tax debate, Democrats warned that Republicans would use the deficits created by the tax cut to press for cuts in safety-net programs. – Siobhan Hughes, Ricard Rubin, and Rebecca Ballhaus, “Trump Wants Budget Cuts as Deficit Grows,” Wall Street Journal, October 18, 2018.
The 31-37 year Saturn/Pluto cycle of January 12, 2020 is already starting to make its presence felt. In terms of the economy, this is a time, give or take 18 months, when budget deficits increase, along with debt and credit downgrades. That’s one of the key themes of Pluto, especially with Saturn. Another frequent theme under hard aspects from these two powerhouses is political assassinations, another grim story that attracted much attention last week with the mysterious disappearance of a Saudi citizen from the Saudi Embassy in Turkey on October 2. He also just happened to be a journalist for the Washington Post who was critical of the Saudi regime. That was another reason for the cause of last week’s stock market decline after Tuesday’s strong rally. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin cancelled his trip to a highly publicized Saudi Investment Conference then. On that announcement, the DJIA plunged over 400 points from its high of the week on Tuesday.
The volatility is not likely to subside this week, nor are the reports drawing attention to the missing Saudi critic and the world’s increasing problems with renewed government deficits and growing debts. On Tuesday, October 23, the Sun will enter Scorpio, the sign of Pluto’s rulership. It will also make an opposition to Uranus that same day, and the next day will be a highly charged full moon. The Sun/Uranus opposition is not a historically powerful reversal signature. Its correlation to primary cycles is only 52% within an orb of 12 trading days. However, it has a 74% correlation to very sharp but brief price swings, often as much as 4%, within only 4 trading days. Venus will oppose Pluto on October 31, which is a stronger correlate to primary or greater cycle reversals (71%), and also has a 71% correspondence to sharp price swings within 4 trading days. They overlap October 25-29, which means we can anticipate an important top or bottom between next Thursday and the following Monday that will either end or begin one of these swings. It should be a very good one-two weeks for short-term day traders who like to trade off extreme but brief price swings.
Further out, we are more focused on November 16 when Venus ends its retrograde motion, but Mercury begins its own. Once again, we expect much volatility then, as both have a 70+% correspondence to sharp price swings within 4 trading days. However, in this case, Venus direct has a very strong 73% correlation to primary or greater cycles culminating within 10 trading days.
On a more personal note, Venus will be turning direct from its own ruling sign of Libra. It could usher in a period of heightened romantic attractions for the remainder of the month. You better make sure you have plenty of cash or your credit card debts are up to date, for it could be embarrassing to meet someone, take them out for a romantic dinner, and then find out you can’t pay the bill. Such is the nature of this period that highlights the sign of Scorpio (debt), both for governments and individuals. Everyone wants to spend money they don’t have — or other peoples’ money, as if it is their own. November is a good month to start a relationship. It is also a month when relationships that started out very well may end abruptly. It’s just like markets because Venus rules love and money. One day it’s there, the next day it’s gone. That’s the story line from now through November. Enjoy it while you can, and try to be a good manager of your resources and temptations.
MMA Current Announcements
NOTE 1: The monthly MMA Cycles report was issued last week, which included a Special Silver Report If you are a subscriber to this report and did not receive it, let us know at once. Also, a complimentary copy was sent to everyone who pre-ordered Forecast 2019. If you wish a copy of this Special Update on Silver, consider a trial subscription to the MMA Cycles Report, or ordering the Forecast 2019 Book while supplies last. Order must be placed by January 15 to receive this Special Silver Report. For further information, go to our website at https://mmacycles.com, or call us at 248-626-3034 or 800-MMA-3349, or email us at email@example.com and get your copy of the Special Silver Report.
NOTE 2: February 9, 2019: MMA’S FORECAST 2019 LIVE WEBINAR, will take place on Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 11:00 AM (MST). This is 1:00 PM EST, 6:00 PM GMT. In the comfort of your own home or office, you can tune into Raymond Merriman’s annual worldwide webinar on Forecast 2019. This broadcast will address subjects from this year’s Forecast 2019 Book, with updates on financial markets since the book was written in November 2018. Outlooks for the U.S. stock market, Gold and Silver, crude oil, and currencies will be discussed. Cost is $45.00, and includes the slides of the presentation, plus a downloadable MP4 recording of the event. To reserve your spot in this live webinar broadcast, contact us directly at 1-248-626-3034, 800-MMA-3349, or email us at firstname.lastname@example.org. You may register via our website at https://mmacycles.com > Products > Webinars. If unable to attend live, you can still sign up, as everyone will recieve the MP4 recording, following the live event.
NOTE 3: The monthly MMTA International Cycles Report (ICR) will be issued this week. This report is probably the best kept secret for the timing and cyclical analysis of several international markets available today. It is an excellent report, written by several graduates and students of MMA’s classic market timing methodology, including Mark Shtayerman (San Diego), Izabella Suleymanova (San Diego), Ulric Aspegren (Sweden), and Gianni Di Poce (USA). Each issue of ICR contains an in-depth analysis of the XAU index (Gold and Silver Mining stocks), the U.S. Dollar (DXY), British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD), the Australian stock index (ASX), the London FTSE stock index, the Russell 2000 U.S. stock index (RUT), Corn (C) and Wheat (W). For more information, call us at 248-626-3034, or 1-800-662-3349. Or, please visit http:// mmacycles.com/ > Subscription Services.
NOTE 4: The Forecast 2019 Book is done and delivery has begun to all those who pre-ordered prior to December 7. The orders received after December 7 will be mailed out in late December. Please note: we have only ordered 20% additional copies. When those remaining 20% are sold out (10% have been ordered so far), they are gone. There will be no second printing. At that point, the only way to read Forecast 2019 will be through the eBook, which is available now to delivery to your inbox! ORDER NOW, if you have not done so already, and make sure you receive your copy of Forecast 2019 before they sell out. For more information on this annual best seller, go to https://mmacycles.com > Products> Forecast 2019. You may also email MMA at email@example.com, or call 1-248-626-3034, 1-800-662-3349.
MMA's annual Forecast Book, written by Raymond A. Merriman since 1976, is unique and one of the most affordable and accurate glimpses into the coming year. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this annual Forecast book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. Specific markets analyzed for the next year(s) include: T-Notes and interest rates, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Gold, Silver, Currencies (U.S. Dollar, Euro, Yen, Swiss Franc, and British Pound), Crude Oil, Grains and Weather. Each market contains the important geocosmic three-star critical reversal dates for 2019. Special sections also include the USA and world economy, the USA and world politics, the USA and its President. A 2019 ephemeris and calendar (one month per page) with geocosmic signatures is included, as well as descriptions of the Mercury retrograde periods for 2019. This book has an impressive background for insightful accuracy into world economic and financial market conditions that you will not want to miss! For further information, go to https://mmacycles.com > Products> Forecast 2019.
This year’s printed version of Forecast 2019 will also available in four other languages, as follows:
Dutch: at www.markettiming.nl
German: at http://www.mma-europe.ch/
Japanese: at http://merriman.jp
“2019 will be the 11th consecutive year I've ordered Ray's annual Forecast book. I read it immediately upon arrival as well as consult the book several times throughout the year. I consider it to be the most important planning tool for my personal trading/investing, not only for the coming year, but looking several years ahead as well. For anyone serious about accurate market timing, Ray's Forecast book is a must read.” - Shane R., Alpine, UT (USA), Individual trader/investor - business owner, 20 years trading stocks & futures.
Thanks to MMA, I have closed 36 trades this year with a win rate of 86% (the remaining 14% were due errors on my part, as I have been actively trading less than a year). Ray’s predictive ability is remarkable. No one predicts more accurately. I highly recommend his daily newsletter which covers many markets. It appears expensive, but it’s a serious money-maker. My advice: get it now. Robert W, San Antonio, Texas, trades index funds, gold, silver, select stocks, less than a year.
January 11-12, 2019: “Trends for 2019,” sponsored by Astrodata, Zurich, Switzerland. Friday night lecture: “Jupiter in Sagittarius, Neptune in Pisces: Is It a Bubble or a Crash?” For much of 2019, Jupiter will be in its ruling sign of Sagittarius, and Neptune will be in its ruling sign of Pisces. Each, by itself, would normally be positive from the economies and stock markets of the world. But in 2019, these two planets will be in a challenging square aspect to one another. What does this mean for the world economy in 2019?
Saturday workshop, Jan 12, in Zurich: “Forecasts for Financial Markets in 2019.” Based on the Forecast 2019 Book, Ray will present his outlook for the world geopolitical and financial landscape in 2019. He will discuss various cycles – both rhythmic and geocosmic – to support his outlook. In this workshop, he will also share his forecast for several financial markets, including Gold, the USA and German/Swiss stock markets, crude oil, and the Euro/U.S. Dollar. If you are an investor or trader, or just interested in the correlation between cycles in human activity and the cosmos, this is a workshop you will not want to miss!
January 19, 2019, Amsterdam, Netherlands, “Forecasts 2019 and Beyond: The Reversal of the Current Economic Cycle,” sponsored by Schogt Market Timing. This conference will take place at the Hotel Breukelen outside of Amsterdam, and feature Karen Hammaker-Zondag, Irma Schogt, and Raymond Merriman. For more information, please visit www.markettiming.nl or take the direct link https://goo.gl/VPxGSe for conference details.
February 9, 2019: MMA’S FORECAST 2019 LIVE WEBINAR, will take place on Saturday, February 9, 2019, 11:00 AM (MST). This is 1:00 PM EST, 6:00 PM GMT. In the comfort of your own home or office, you can tune into Raymond Merriman’s annual worldwide webinar on “Forecast 2019.” This broadcast will address subjects from this year’s Forecast 2019 Book, with updates on financial markets since the book was written in November 2018. Outlooks for the U.S. stock market, Gold and Silver, crude oil, and currencies will be discussed. Cost is $45.00, and includes the slides of the presentation, plus a downloadable MP4 recording of the event. To reserve your spot in this live webinar broadcast, contact us directly at 1-248-626-3034, 800-MMA-3349, or email us at firstname.lastname@example.org. You may register via our website at https://mmacycles.com > Products > Webinars. If unable to attend live, you can still sign up, as everyone who orders the Webinar will recieve the MP4 recording, following the live event.
March 9, 2019: 10:30 AM – 4 PM. Nova Southwestern University, 3301 College Ave, Carl DeSantis Bldg, Ft. Lauderdale, FL. This a 3-4 hour workshop on “Forecast 2019,” by Raymond Merriman. Contact 954-296-1211. $50.
April 26, 2019: Boulder, Colorado. “Forecasts for Financial Markets and USA Economy and Political Situation.” Details and contact information to be announced shortly, sponsored by ROMA.
June 8-16, 2019: “Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles,” Beijing, China. A two-weekend intensive Market Trading workshop/retreat with Raymond Merriman. This 32-hour intensive workshop will focus on the primary cycle and its phases – the half-primary, major, and trading cycles - and how to determine when they are due. Then, we will identify geocosmic signatures – Levels 1, 2, and 3 – as the basis for calculating CRDs (Critical Reversal Dates), to narrow the time band down for an important cycle reversal. Within that time, we will identify and discuss specific technical and charting tools that will further enhance the timing of a major market reversal, and the price target range to look for. In this analysis, we will also explore the use of 60- 30-, and 5-minutes charts for even more accurate entry and exit points. With these tools, we will then construct a daily and/or weekly trading plan, as used in MMA Daily and Weekly Reports, using current market situations. Examples of several markets – including the USA and China stock markets, Gold, and crude oil will be used to illustrate these market timing techniques, with forecasts for the future. The workshop will take place on the weekends of June 8-9 and June 15-16 in Beijing. During the week, participants will have the option of taking tours with other MMA students to exciting areas of China. The cost for this unique and valuable trading retreat is $4000 (discounts will be available to subscribers of MMA Reports). For further information, please contact MMA at email@example.com or call 1-248-626-3034 or 1-800-MMA-3349.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence potentially affect financial markets.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.