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REVIEW AND PREVIEW
Greenspan suggests the nearly 50-year low unemployment rate, coupled with American corporations clamoring for workers, will force up wages and inflation. "Ultimately prices take hold," he said. "This is the tightest market, labor market, I've ever seen. But concurrently, we have a very slow productivity increase." – Berkeley Lovelace, “Ex-Fed Chief Greenspan: This is the Tightest Labor Market I Have Ever Seen,” www.cnbc.com, October 18, 2018.
Ongoing concerns about Italy's spending proposals are likely to remain a negative for the (Euro) currency. The European Commission on Thursday sent Rome a letter calling a draft budget an "unprecedented" breach of EU fiscal rules, the first step of a procedure that could end with Brussels rejecting the budget and fining Italy. – Reuters, “Euro, Sterling, Gain on Report that UK May Drop Key Brexit Demand,” www.cnbc.com, October 19, 2018.
Analyst expect ratings agencies to lower Italy's credit rating next week. David Reid, “A Ratings Downgrade for Italy is Now Forecast to Happen Within Days,” www.cnbc.com, October 19, 2018.
The decline in world stock indices following their highs near the Venus retrograde on October 5 continued last week. Many indices started out low, then had a huge rally into Tuesday, and then another sell-off. In most cases, the selloff did not fall below last Monday’s low, but it was a disappointing let down after Tuesday’s large rally. The concerns were related to the themes of Venus (banking policies) in Scorpio (debt). That is, Italy’s recent budget proposal included much more spending than previously expected, and the continued criticism by the USA Administration of the Federal Reserve Board’s interest rate policies have caused investors to re-consider the growth prospects of stocks. In the first case, the decision by the Italian government to inflate its deficit spending plans is leading to a downgrade in its credit rating. It undermines investment plans in the entire Eurozone by those outside the Eurozone, for this becomes another inflationary factor. In the second case, the Fed is continuing its plans to raise rates because it doesn’t want inflation to get out of control. Critics, like President Trump, argue that inflation is mild and under control. But that’s today, before Jupiter enters the expansive sign of Sagittarius and squares Neptune, which is an inflationary combination that is starting in November 2018 and will be in force over the next year. The Fed is thinking about the future, and as Alan Greensman points out, the low unemployment and tight labor market are powerful forces that can — and probably will — lead to an inflationary spike sooner than later. These factors may account for the recent weakness in world equity and treasury markets, but they also factor in the recent rally in Gold and Silver.
SHORT-TERM GEOCOSMICS AND LONGER-TERM MUNDANE THOUGHTS
The U.S. government ran its largest budget deficit in six years during the fiscal year that ended last month, an unusual development in a fast-growing economy and a sign that — so far at least — tax cuts have restrained government revenue gains… The deficit is headed toward $1 trillion in the current fiscal year, the White House and Congressional Budget Office said. – Kate Davidson, “Deficit Swells as Tax Cuts Take Bite,” Wall Street Journal, October 16, 2018.
President Trump asked his cabinet to find ways to find ways to cut their budgets by 5% next year, targeting government spending after an official tally showed Republicans’ tax cuts drive the federal budget deficit to its widest level in six years… During last year’s tax debate, Democrats warned that Republicans would use the deficits created by the tax cut to press for cuts in safety-net programs. – Siobhan Hughes, Ricard Rubin, and Rebecca Ballhaus, “Trump Wants Budget Cuts as Deficit Grows,” Wall Street Journal, October 18, 2018.
The 31-37 year Saturn/Pluto cycle of January 12, 2020 is already starting to make its presence felt. In terms of the economy, this is a time, give or take 18 months, when budget deficits increase, along with debt and credit downgrades. That’s one of the key themes of Pluto, especially with Saturn. Another frequent theme under hard aspects from these two powerhouses is political assassinations, another grim story that attracted much attention last week with the mysterious disappearance of a Saudi citizen from the Saudi Embassy in Turkey on October 2. He also just happened to be a journalist for the Washington Post who was critical of the Saudi regime. That was another reason for the cause of last week’s stock market decline after Tuesday’s strong rally. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin cancelled his trip to a highly publicized Saudi Investment Conference then. On that announcement, the DJIA plunged over 400 points from its high of the week on Tuesday.
The volatility is not likely to subside this week, nor are the reports drawing attention to the missing Saudi critic and the world’s increasing problems with renewed government deficits and growing debts. On Tuesday, October 23, the Sun will enter Scorpio, the sign of Pluto’s rulership. It will also make an opposition to Uranus that same day, and the next day will be a highly charged full moon. The Sun/Uranus opposition is not a historically powerful reversal signature. Its correlation to primary cycles is only 52% within an orb of 12 trading days. However, it has a 74% correlation to very sharp but brief price swings, often as much as 4%, within only 4 trading days. Venus will oppose Pluto on October 31, which is a stronger correlate to primary or greater cycle reversals (71%), and also has a 71% correspondence to sharp price swings within 4 trading days. They overlap October 25-29, which means we can anticipate an important top or bottom between next Thursday and the following Monday that will either end or begin one of these swings. It should be a very good one-two weeks for short-term day traders who like to trade off extreme but brief price swings.
Further out, we are more focused on November 16 when Venus ends its retrograde motion, but Mercury begins its own. Once again, we expect much volatility then, as both have a 70+% correspondence to sharp price swings within 4 trading days. However, in this case, Venus direct has a very strong 73% correlation to primary or greater cycles culminating within 10 trading days.
On a more personal note, Venus will be turning direct from its own ruling sign of Libra. It could usher in a period of heightened romantic attractions for the remainder of the month. You better make sure you have plenty of cash or your credit card debts are up to date, for it could be embarrassing to meet someone, take them out for a romantic dinner, and then find out you can’t pay the bill. Such is the nature of this period that highlights the sign of Scorpio (debt), both for governments and individuals. Everyone wants to spend money they don’t have — or other peoples’ money, as if it is their own. November is a good month to start a relationship. It is also a month when relationships that started out very well may end abruptly. It’s just like markets because Venus rules love and money. One day it’s there, the next day it’s gone. That’s the story line from now through November. Enjoy it while you can, and try to be a good manager of your resources and temptations.
MMA Current Announcements
NOTE 1: The monthly MMA and ICR Cycles Reports are both coming out this week!
THE MONTHLY MMA CYCLES REPORT contains our future outlook for U.S. stock indices (DJIA and S&P futures), Gold, Silver, Treasuries, Euro Currency, Crude Oil and Soybeans, plus MMA’s original geocosmic critical reversal dates (CRDs) and Solar/Lunar reversal dates over the next several weeks for DJIA, Gold, and Silver. This May issue will also have an analysis of Live Cattle by Massimo Moras, MMTA graduate and analyst and an updated report on Cannabis stocks. This will be the last MMA Cycles Report issue that will offer Live Cattle and Cannabis analysis. They will, now switch to be regular features in the new ICR International Commodities Cycles Report, starting on July 2. That report will also include analysis on Corn, Wheat, Coffee, and Sugar markets as well as the XAU Gold and Silver Mining Index. The monthly MMA Japan Cycles report will also be released this week, covering the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen. If you are not a subscriber to the monthly MMA Cycles Reports and wish a copy of this month’s outlook for financial markets, consider taking out a subscription NOW. Please visit https://mmacycles.com > Services > Subscription Services for more information.
The Monthly MMTA International Cycles Report (ICR) will also be issued this week. This issue will include analysis on Coffee and Sugar, which will then be moved over to the new monthly ICR Commodities Report in the next issue. The monthly ICR report is probably the best kept secret for the timing and cyclical analysis of several international markets available today. It is an excellent report, written by several graduates and students of MMA’s classic market timing methodology, including Mark Shtayerman (San Diego), Izabella Suleymanova (San Diego), and Ulric Aspegren (Sweden). This issue of ICR contains an in-depth analysis of the XAU index (Gold and Silver Mining stocks), the U.S. Dollar (DXY), British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD), the Australian stock index (ASX), the London FTSE stock index, the Russell 2000 U.S. stock index (RUT), Corn (C) and Wheat (W). And for now, it will also include Coffee and Sugar. Starting with the next issue, this will become the new ICR Financial Markets Report, less Corn, Wheat, and XAU, and will instead include the Chinese Shanghai Composite Stock Index and Hang Seng of Hong Kong Stock Index (see below). For more information, call us at 248-626-3034, or 1-800-662-3349. Or, please visit http:// mmacycles.com/ > Subscription Services.
NOTE 2: The New ICR Cycles’ Reports from MMA are Coming!!! Starting on July 2nd, we are going to expand our International Cycles Report (ICR) into two reports... ICR Financials and ICR Commodities. Each report will be covering 7 markets, and will cost, as follows (but there will be a special introductory offer – see below):
Cost: $325/ Year or $66/ 2 Months
Markets Covered: ASX (Australian Stock Index), RUT (Russell 2000), SSE (Chinese Shanghai Stock Composite), HSI (Hang Seng Index), AUD (Australian Dollar), DXY (US Dollar), and GBP (British Pound)
Release Date: Tuesday July 2, 2019
Cost: $325/ Year or $66/ 2 Months
Markets Covered: LC (Live Cattle), MJ (Cannabis), XAU (Gold and Silver), KT (Coffee), KA (Sugar), C (Corn), and W (Wheat)
Release Date: Wednesday July 3, 2019
If you sign up for either ICR Report by June 30th, you will also receive – at no additional cost – the May issue of our current ICR Report, which contains our initial analysis of Coffee, Corn, Wheat, and Sugar. As a final BONUS, we will send you both the ICR Financials Report and the ICR Commodities Report in July so that you can see and experience both of our new reports. That’s TWO reports- at no additional cost- just for trying our new report. SAVE 20% NOW! If you wish to sign up for both the ICR Financials Report and ICR Commodities Report, we are offering a 20% off the yearly rate for both reports, valid until June 1. Instead of $650 for both reports, your cost will be $520- a savings of $130! Use code ICR at check out to receive the discount. For further information, visit https://mmacycles.com > Services > Subscription Services.
NOTE 3: MMA’S DAILY AND WEEKLY SUBSCRIPTION REPORTS ARE THE BEST WAY TO KEEP UP WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING MARKETS! If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you will be interested in MMA’s Weekly or Daily Market reports. The weekly reports give an in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro/Yen cash, Swiss Franc, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver, and Bitcoin. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as the Euro Currency, Japanese Yen, Bitcoin, T-Notes, Gold and Silver, plus GLD and SLV (the Gold and Silver ETF’s). Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders and shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the Daily report also includes the Weekly report. For further information, visit https://mmacycles.com > Services > Subscription Services.
For any questions, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org or call (248) 626-3034, or (800) MMA-3349.
June 8-16, 2019: IT’S ON! June 8-16, 2019: “Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles,” with Raymond Merriman in Beijing, China. This special 2-weekend workshop will take place at the Beijing Broadcasting Tower Hotel, No.14 Jianguomenwai Da Jie, Chaoyang, 100022 Beijing, China. This will be two intensive weekend Market Trading workshops focusing on the identifying the primary cycle and its phases used in trading several financial markets, with the emphasis on the U.S. and Chinese Shanghai stock indices and Gold (other markets will be included as well). The course will then take participants through the steps of narrowing the time band down for trading cycle highs and lows by applying geocosmic and solar/lunar studies. Once in the time band for a reversal, students will then learn how to apply various chart patterns and technical studies to identify the setup for optimal risk/reward opportunities. The workshop will take place on the weekends of June 8-9 and June 15-16 in Beijing. During the week, participants will have the option of taking tours with other MMA students to exciting areas of China. The cost for this unique and valuable 2-weekend trading course is $4000 (discounts will be available to subscribers of MMA Reports). For further information, please contact MMA at email@example.com or call 1-248-626-3034 or 1-800-MMA-3349. Or, for a complete description of each course, go to:
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence potentially affect financial markets.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.