MMA Weekly Column for 2018-10-29 ©

Posted by in Raymond Merriman's Weekly Preview on October 27, 2018 . .

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REVIEW AND PREVIEW

 

Several factors have conspired to knock markets down this month — some earnings disappointment, fear of rising interest rates, a brewing conflict between Italy and the European Union over budget spending, criticism of oil power Saudi Arabia after the killing of a dissident journalist and finally, worries that world growth is losing steam.- Fred Imbert, “Dow Dives Nearly 300 Points, S&P Dips Into Correction Levels in Another Wild Day on Wall Street,” www.cnbc.com, October 26, 2018.

 

Bashing Jay Powell (Federal Reserve Board chair) makes it harder to keep interest rates low… No doubt the President is also deflecting blame from the White House for any economic slowdown, Mr. Trump needs a foil more than even most politicians… The bigger economic risk is slower growth abroad, which Mr. Trump should care about though he professes not to. Faster U.S. growth and rising interest rates are drawing capital from other markets. Mr. Trump’s tariffs are also hurting trade flows. Border taxes are never a free lunch. - “Trump Flunks Fed Politics,” Wall Journal Opinion page, October 25, 2018.

 

Global equity markets continued their plunge following our last three-star geocosmic Critical Reversal Date (CRD) of October 3, which involved the very important Venus retrograde of October 5. In fact, many stock indices made multi-month lows at the end of last week, on Friday, October 26, which is the exact midpoint of Venus retrograde (October 5-November 16). Our rule is that any market that did not make a major or primary cycle reversal near to the date of Venus turning retrograde, is very likely a candidate to do so within 2 trading days of their retrograde midpoint. That rule doesn’t apply to stock indices in this case, because they did reverse Venus turned retrograde. There is no compelling reason yet to think that they will end that decline and reverse up right now. However, there are some financial markets that do qualify for this rule, such as the Euro currency and U.S. Dollar. For those that don’t qualify (like stocks), there is still a possibility they could reverse, but the historical rate of frequency for such reversals is not as reliable as in the case of those markets that did not reverse at the time of the retrograde.

 

We saw Uranus in full action last week. On October 23, the Sun made an opposition to Uranus. The next day, the full Moon was conjunct Uranus. On Wednesday, October 31, Venus will be in opposition to Uranus. When multiple Uranus signatures are present nearby to one another, financial markets (like stocks) will often exhibit very sharp price swings, falling below well-defined support or rising above well-defined resistance during the 4-day period surrounding each. However, it is the midpoint of these two Uranus aspects which is especially prone to a potential reversal, +/- a couple of trading days. That midpoint is this Saturday, October 27.

 

In other markets, Gold continued to rally to its highest price now since our special reports of mid-August calling for a long-term cycle low. That low of 1167 on August 16 has not been violated, and on Friday, Gold climbed to 1248 intraday. The bigger story, however, was in the Euro currency, where the cash index fell to 1.1332 on Friday, October 26, in the double bottom range of its 1.1297 yearly low on August 15. What is most interesting is that Gold is making a multi-month high as the Euro is testing its yearly low and the Dollar is testing its yearly high. Gold is supposed to be depressed when the Dollar is rising, and not rise with it. But then again, this is Venus retrograde time, and Venus rules currencies and values, so the rules are upside down for now, and maybe into November 16 when Venus will turn direct —but then, Mercury will turn retrograde. We get no relief from all of these retrograde planets that have been operative since late June 2018. It’s been one retrograde planet after another, which makes you wonder what “true north” is any more. The problem for traders is that under so many retrogrades lasting so long, normally reliable technical studies become unreliable, and some traders (especially inexperienced traders) become discouraged. Experienced traders have seen this before, and they know that “this too shall pass.”

 

SHORT-TERM GEOCOSMICS AND LONGER-TERM MUNDANE THOUGHTS

 

US President Trump has suggested the Fed is the greatest threat to the US economy. An economist would suggest recessions arise from overheating (caused by deficit financed tax cuts, perhaps), or policy error (disrupting supply chains on which an economy depends, perhaps). Zero real rates with full employment are probably not a (restrictive) policy error. – Paul Donovan, “To redo, or redo,” www.ubs.com/pauldonovan, October 24, 2019.

 

(Mr. Trump) has had significant achievements — unemployment down, economy up, the courts, an imperfect tax bill that nonetheless got passed and was slightly better than what it replaced. No one seems to mention it, but America right now is enjoying prosperity and peace — or, if you prefer, growth and no new wars. It is a continuing amazement that with this, the president can’t get himself to 50% approval, or his party in a better position. – Peggy Noonan, “A Long Way From the Arsenal of Democracy,” Wall Street Journal, October 20-21, 2018.

 

On Sept 18, simultaneous with the nation’s daily dose of Ford versus Kavanaugh, Mr. Trump’s approval began to climb (from 40.6%). It now sits at a 44.1% average. It just hit 47% in the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.” – Daniel Henninger, “The October Surprise Arrives,” Wall Street Journal, October 25, 2018.

 

The greater question to traders and investors right now is whether a bear market has actually begun in U.S. and other nations’ stock indices. From the cosmic perspective, there is reason to think it has — and there is reason to think this is just a temporary pullback before another astounding rally to new all-time highs.

 

First, the bearish perspective. The all-time high on October 3 was just a few weeks after the fourth and final trine aspect between Saturn and Uranus that took place when this 45-year planetary cycle came within just 13’ of one degree of an exact trine in the last ten days of August. Historically, the U.S. stock market has always made a long-term cycle crest within 2 months of this aspect’s time band (in this case, it was in effect November 2016-August 2018). The last time this aspect unfolded coincided with the all-time high of January 1973, after which the Watergate fiasco began and stocks has their largest decline since the Great Depression into December 1974. The DJIA lost 46% of its value between the all-time high of January 1973 and that 36-year cycle bottom in December 1974. Supporting this idea that a new bear market has begun as of October 3 is the deteriorating technical damage that is now occurring. It acts like a bear market as daily and weekly support levels break down, and so do various longer-term chart formations. This is how bear markets behave when they are underway. One support after another breaks down, and all rallies are short-lived.

 

Yet, the cosmos also allows for a bullish outlook. On November 8, Jupiter will enter Sagittarius for the next 13 months, a historical placement that has a strong correlation of coinciding with a long-term cycle crest during that reign. Supporting this view is the election on November 6, 2018. Markets lately have made lows nearby to important national elections in the USA. Plus, any resolution of the trade dispute with China would likely result in a powerful rally, and Jupiter in Sagittarius is favorable for reaching a resolution involving world trade spats. Also supporting this possibility is that Venus retrograde will end on November 16 (and Mercury retrograde will begin). The market topped out when Venus turned retrograde. Any market that makes a primary or greater cycle crest when Venus or Mars turns retrograde is a strong candidate to make its low (counter-trend movement) when Venus turns direct. The next three weeks, therefore, are important from the cosmic perspective.

 

When Venus turns retrograde, people (investors) change their minds, and so do politicians and bankers, who just happen to be people too. When Venus turns direct, they change their minds, their stories and excuses, back to where they were before they changed them in the first place (think Saudi Arabia). It’s like, what goes around, comes around. Or, it’s like, what was good for you once before comes back again, and you like it again (think of a past lover). But then you realize why you let it go in the first place, so you let it go again.

 

By the way, is anyone watching Live Cattle prices, since Uranus ingressed into Taurus in mid-May? It is going to cost you to be a meat eater these next few years.

MMA Current Announcements

 

ANNOUNCEMENTS

 

NOTE 1: The monthly MMA and ICR Cycles Reports are both coming out this week!

 

THE MONTHLY MMA CYCLES REPORT contains our future outlook for U.S. stock indices (DJIA and S&P futures), Gold, Silver, Treasuries, Euro Currency, Crude Oil and Soybeans, plus MMA’s original geocosmic critical reversal dates (CRDs) and Solar/Lunar reversal dates over the next several weeks for DJIA, Gold, and Silver. This May issue will also have an analysis of Live Cattle by Massimo Moras, MMTA graduate and analyst and an updated report on Cannabis stocks. This will be the last MMA Cycles Report issue that will offer Live Cattle and Cannabis analysis. They will, now switch to be regular features in the new ICR International Commodities Cycles Report, starting on July 2. That report will also include analysis on Corn, Wheat, Coffee, and Sugar markets as well as the XAU Gold and Silver Mining Index. The monthly MMA Japan Cycles report will also be released this week, covering the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen. If you are not a subscriber to the monthly MMA Cycles Reports and wish a copy of this month’s outlook for financial markets, consider taking out a subscription NOW. Please visit https://mmacycles.com > Services > Subscription Services for more information.

 

The Monthly MMTA International Cycles Report (ICR) will also be issued this week. This issue will include analysis on Coffee and Sugar, which will then be moved over to the new monthly ICR Commodities Report in the next issue. The monthly ICR report is probably the best kept secret for the timing and cyclical analysis of several international markets available today. It is an excellent report, written by several graduates and students of MMA’s classic market timing methodology, including Mark Shtayerman (San Diego), Izabella Suleymanova (San Diego), and Ulric Aspegren (Sweden). This issue of ICR contains an in-depth analysis of the XAU index (Gold and Silver Mining stocks), the U.S. Dollar (DXY), British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD), the Australian stock index (ASX), the London FTSE stock index, the Russell 2000 U.S. stock index (RUT), Corn (C) and Wheat (W). And for now, it will also include Coffee and Sugar. Starting with the next issue, this will become the new ICR Financial Markets Report, less Corn, Wheat, and XAU, and will instead include the Chinese Shanghai Composite Stock Index and Hang Seng of Hong Kong Stock Index (see below). For more information, call us at 248-626-3034, or 1-800-662-3349. Or, please visit http:// mmacycles.com/ > Subscription Services.

 

NOTE 2: The New ICR Cycles’ Reports from MMA are Coming!!! Starting on July 2nd, we are going to expand our International Cycles Report (ICR) into two reports... ICR Financials and ICR Commodities. Each report will be covering 7 markets, and will cost, as follows (but there will be a special introductory offer – see below):

 

ICR Financials:

Cost: $325/ Year or $66/ 2 Months

Markets Covered: ASX (Australian Stock Index), RUT (Russell 2000), SSE (Chinese Shanghai Stock Composite), HSI (Hang Seng Index), AUD (Australian Dollar), DXY (US Dollar), and GBP (British Pound)

Release Date: Tuesday July 2, 2019

 

ICR Commodities:

Cost: $325/ Year or $66/ 2 Months

Markets Covered: LC (Live Cattle), MJ (Cannabis), XAU (Gold and Silver), KT (Coffee), KA (Sugar), C (Corn), and W (Wheat)

Release Date: Wednesday July 3, 2019

 

If you sign up for either ICR Report by June 30th, you will also receive – at no additional cost – the May issue of our current ICR Report, which contains our initial analysis of Coffee, Corn, Wheat, and Sugar. As a final BONUS, we will send you both the ICR Financials Report and the ICR Commodities Report in July so that you can see and experience both of our new reports. That’s TWO reports- at no additional cost- just for trying our new report. SAVE 20% NOW! If you wish to sign up for both the ICR Financials Report and ICR Commodities Report, we are offering a 20% off the yearly rate for both reports, valid until June 1. Instead of $650 for both reports, your cost will be $520- a savings of $130! Use code ICR at check out to receive the discount. For further information, visit https://mmacycles.com > Services > Subscription Services.

 

NOTE 3: MMA’S DAILY AND WEEKLY SUBSCRIPTION REPORTS ARE THE BEST WAY TO KEEP UP WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING MARKETS! If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you will be interested in MMA’s Weekly or Daily Market reports. The weekly reports give an in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro/Yen cash, Swiss Franc, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver, and Bitcoin. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as the Euro Currency, Japanese Yen, Bitcoin, T-Notes, Gold and Silver, plus GLD and SLV (the Gold and Silver ETF’s). Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders and shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the Daily report also includes the Weekly report. For further information, visit https://mmacycles.com > Services > Subscription Services.

 

For any questions, please contact us at customerservice@mmacycles.com or call (248) 626-3034, or (800) MMA-3349.

 

EVENTS

 

June 8-16, 2019: IT’S ON! June 8-16, 2019: “Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles,” with Raymond Merriman in Beijing, China. This special 2-weekend workshop will take place at the Beijing Broadcasting Tower Hotel, No.14 Jianguomenwai Da Jie, Chaoyang, 100022 Beijing, China. This will be two intensive weekend Market Trading workshops focusing on the identifying the primary cycle and its phases used in trading several financial markets, with the emphasis on the U.S. and Chinese Shanghai stock indices and Gold (other markets will be included as well). The course will then take participants through the steps of narrowing the time band down for trading cycle highs and lows by applying geocosmic and solar/lunar studies. Once in the time band for a reversal, students will then learn how to apply various chart patterns and technical studies to identify the setup for optimal risk/reward opportunities. The workshop will take place on the weekends of June 8-9 and June 15-16 in Beijing. During the week, participants will have the option of taking tours with other MMA students to exciting areas of China. The cost for this unique and valuable 2-weekend trading course is $4000 (discounts will be available to subscribers of MMA Reports). For further information, please contact MMA at customerservice@mmacycles.com or call 1-248-626-3034 or 1-800-MMA-3349. Or, for a complete description of each course, go to:

 

https://mmacycles.com/index.php?route=blog/article&category_id=3&article_id=248 

 

https://mmacycles.com/index.php?route=product/product&path=64_72&product_id=184

 

https://mmacycles.com/index.php?route=product/product&path=64_72&product_id=286

 

 

Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence potentially affect financial markets.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.