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REVIEW, PREVIEW, AND BOTH SHORT- AND LONGER-TERM THOUGHTS
Mr. Powell (Fed Chair) said interest rates are “just below” broad estimates of a neutral level – a setting designed to neither speed nor slow economic growth. Investors read his comments to suggest that the Fed increases might stop sooner or happen more slowly, though he didn’t say so directly. Stocks climbed immediately after Mr. Powell’s midday remarks. – “Powell Remarks Spark Market Rally,” Amrith Romkumar and Nick Timeron, Wall Street Journal, November 29, 2018
Stocks closed a volatile month with strong gains on Friday on renewed bets the U.S. and China could strike a deal on trade. – Fred Imbert, “Dow Ends Volatile November With More Than 150-Point Rally on Hopes of a U.S.-China Trade Deal at G-20,” https://www.cnbc.com, November 30. (Note: DJIA ended up 199 points on Friday)
Last week was a good omen for stocks, reflecting the recent ingress of Jupiter into its ruling sign of Sagittarius. In fact, both the Sun and Mercury conjoined Jupiter last week, and the stellium had a spectacular reaction with global equity markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average skyrocketed 617 points on Wednesday, November 28, following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments about interest rates and the economy approaching the desired “neutral level.” That was the fifth largest up day in the history of the DJIA, and only two points shy of the fourth largest one-day point gain. The DJIA continued higher into the close of the week on hopes of a breakthrough this weekend in the trade dispute between China and the U.S.A., during the G-20 summit taking place in Buenos Aires.
The only problem from the cosmic viewpoint is that these optimistic and hopeful themes of Jupiter and Sagittarius begin losing some of their luster now. Mercury is retrograde, which is challenging enough with the unpredictability of the Trickster likely to be in full force. But it retreats back into the more skeptical sign of Scorpio on Saturday morning, December 1, and Venus also joins it in Scorpio on Sunday, December 2. By Monday, the Moon also enters Scorpio, so what was joyous and happy this past week may start out next week with a more somber assessment of what is real and possible. Still, the Sun and Jupiter will remain in Sagittarius for the next three weeks, and on Thursday, December 6, Mercury will end its retrograde cycle, so this is still another opportunity for the president to pull off his magic and show the world what “The Art of Deal” is all about. Or not. After all, Jupiter and Sagittarius are well-known for their promises. They are also well-known for promising much more than they often deliver.
Many of the world’s stock indices showed healthy gains last week, following their lows of the prior week. The DJIA and Japanese Nikkei indices, for example, were both up over 1000 points from their lows of November 21-23 to their highs of November 29-30. The lows were just 1-3 trading days after Venus ended its retrograde motion, and the highs of Friday were exactly on the day that Venus formed an opposition to Uranus, another powerful reversal signature. It appears there is a lot riding on Mr. Trump’s ability to “close the deal.” It may not happen this weekend and if it does, it may be subject to revision soon afterwards.
Bitcoin continued very much in the news as it dropped to 3457 on November 25. That now represents a loss of 82.2% from its all-time high of less than one year ago at 19,458 on December 18, 2017. That also means Bitcoin is in the 77-93% loss-of-value range that has defined historical crisis periods of various financial markets throughout history, such as Silver in 1980-1991, the NASDAQ in 2000 through 2002, and Crude Oil in 2008 into early 2009. Many now fear that Bitcoin will go extinct.
Crude Oil, which didn’t go extinct in 2008-2009, was also in the news last week as it fell to a new yearly low of 49.41 on Thursday, November 29. It is still not going to go extinct. It’s just a cycle, a long-term cycle, but not as long a term of a cycle as was present in 2008-2009. I think the case with Bitcon will be the same as it was with Crude Oil, the NASDAQ, and Silver; however, it took years for each to come back to where it was before. These markets usually need time to build a base, and a sense of faith, after their near-death episodes. But they do come back, unless they are tulips.
SHORT-TERM GEOCOSMICS AND LONGER-TERM THOUGHTS
“I think we are really close to doing something with China, but I don’t know that I want to do it,” Trump told reporters. “Because what we have right now is billions and billions of dollars coming into the United States in the form of tariffs and taxes, so I really don’t know.” – Liz Moyer, “Trump Says He Thinks China Wants to Make a Deal,” https://.www.cnbc.com, November 29, 2018.
In a trade war, both sides lose. “It’s just the winner loses less,” said Alan Greenspan. “Insane. Why we’re doing it probably is very deep in the psyche of someone….” This foolish policy is definitely behind the astounding 94% drop in the sale of American soybeans to China, by far the world’s biggest buyer of soybeans. Trump has launched a bailout program, (but) it’s not nearly enough to cover farmers’ losses… “Trade wars are good and easy to win,” tweeted Trump in March. Crazy-town, here we are. -Froma Harrop, “Is the Economy on the Direct Line to Crazytown?” Arizona Republic, November 28, 2018.
This promises to be another bizarre week, filled with promises, hype, maybe threats, possibly a lot of blame or lip-biting to keep them shut, and no facts. It will paint pictures and deliver narratives that are probably fantasy. You cannot believe what you will hear or what is promised. This is the week that Mars will conjoin Neptune in Pisces, and the new Moon in Sagittarius that will square both. This is a combination that can have an impact on the Crude Oil market, for both Sagittarius and Pisces are signs which have rulership over Crude Oil, along with their ruling planets Jupiter and Neptune.
But here is why it may be crazy and unbelievable. Mars is aggressive, but Neptune and Pisces are passive. So, what you will witness is a heavy case of passive-aggression on the part of world leaders, trying to put on a good front by endorsing things (like agreements) that they don’t really believe. “We are really close to a deal but I don’t know that I want to do it.” What? They are acting, and they are exaggerating (Sagittarius), but not very convincingly. They are mad, but mostly mad at themselves for not doing what they want to do. They will act like they are in agreement and they want to appear unified and at peace with one another (Neptune, Pisces), when below the surface they may be seething (Mars) that they couldn’t get the deals they really wanted. How will the markets respond? It depends on whether they believe the words and the show, or not. If they believe it, stock indices can soar next week, especially with the “irrational exuberance” of the Sun in Sagittarius square Mars and Neptune. Or, the opposite can happen if the investment community senses that this is not going to work, if it is all too abstract, lacking in details and specifics; in that case the negative side of these aspects manifests as lost trust leading to hysteria and panic.
By the way, these themes don’t apply only to world leaders on the world stage this weekend, but to all of us. The challenge for everyone this week is to be honest, forthright, sincerely helpful, and authentic. Anything less than that will be read as deceptive, and could lead one into crazytown.
MMA Current Announcements
NOTE 1: The monthly MMA Cycles report was issued last week, which included a Special Silver Report If you are a subscriber to this report and did not receive it, let us know at once. Also, a complimentary copy was sent to everyone who pre-ordered Forecast 2019. If you wish a copy of this Special Update on Silver, consider a trial subscription to the MMA Cycles Report, or ordering the Forecast 2019 Book while supplies last. Order must be placed by January 15 to receive this Special Silver Report. For further information, go to our website at https://mmacycles.com, or call us at 248-626-3034 or 800-MMA-3349, or email us at email@example.com and get your copy of the Special Silver Report.
NOTE 2: February 9, 2019: MMA’S FORECAST 2019 LIVE WEBINAR, will take place on Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 11:00 AM (MST). This is 1:00 PM EST, 6:00 PM GMT. In the comfort of your own home or office, you can tune into Raymond Merriman’s annual worldwide webinar on Forecast 2019. This broadcast will address subjects from this year’s Forecast 2019 Book, with updates on financial markets since the book was written in November 2018. Outlooks for the U.S. stock market, Gold and Silver, crude oil, and currencies will be discussed. Cost is $45.00, and includes the slides of the presentation, plus a downloadable MP4 recording of the event. To reserve your spot in this live webinar broadcast, contact us directly at 1-248-626-3034, 800-MMA-3349, or email us at firstname.lastname@example.org. You may register via our website at https://mmacycles.com > Products > Webinars. If unable to attend live, you can still sign up, as everyone will recieve the MP4 recording, following the live event.
NOTE 3: The monthly MMTA International Cycles Report (ICR) will be issued this week. This report is probably the best kept secret for the timing and cyclical analysis of several international markets available today. It is an excellent report, written by several graduates and students of MMA’s classic market timing methodology, including Mark Shtayerman (San Diego), Izabella Suleymanova (San Diego), Ulric Aspegren (Sweden), and Gianni Di Poce (USA). Each issue of ICR contains an in-depth analysis of the XAU index (Gold and Silver Mining stocks), the U.S. Dollar (DXY), British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD), the Australian stock index (ASX), the London FTSE stock index, the Russell 2000 U.S. stock index (RUT), Corn (C) and Wheat (W). For more information, call us at 248-626-3034, or 1-800-662-3349. Or, please visit http:// mmacycles.com/ > Subscription Services.
NOTE 4: The Forecast 2019 Book is done and delivery has begun to all those who pre-ordered prior to December 7. The orders received after December 7 will be mailed out in late December. Please note: we have only ordered 20% additional copies. When those remaining 20% are sold out (10% have been ordered so far), they are gone. There will be no second printing. At that point, the only way to read Forecast 2019 will be through the eBook, which is available now to delivery to your inbox! ORDER NOW, if you have not done so already, and make sure you receive your copy of Forecast 2019 before they sell out. For more information on this annual best seller, go to https://mmacycles.com > Products> Forecast 2019. You may also email MMA at email@example.com, or call 1-248-626-3034, 1-800-662-3349.
MMA's annual Forecast Book, written by Raymond A. Merriman since 1976, is unique and one of the most affordable and accurate glimpses into the coming year. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this annual Forecast book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. Specific markets analyzed for the next year(s) include: T-Notes and interest rates, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Gold, Silver, Currencies (U.S. Dollar, Euro, Yen, Swiss Franc, and British Pound), Crude Oil, Grains and Weather. Each market contains the important geocosmic three-star critical reversal dates for 2019. Special sections also include the USA and world economy, the USA and world politics, the USA and its President. A 2019 ephemeris and calendar (one month per page) with geocosmic signatures is included, as well as descriptions of the Mercury retrograde periods for 2019. This book has an impressive background for insightful accuracy into world economic and financial market conditions that you will not want to miss! For further information, go to https://mmacycles.com > Products> Forecast 2019.
This year’s printed version of Forecast 2019 will also available in four other languages, as follows:
Dutch: at www.markettiming.nl
German: at http://www.mma-europe.ch/
Japanese: at http://merriman.jp
“2019 will be the 11th consecutive year I've ordered Ray's annual Forecast book. I read it immediately upon arrival as well as consult the book several times throughout the year. I consider it to be the most important planning tool for my personal trading/investing, not only for the coming year, but looking several years ahead as well. For anyone serious about accurate market timing, Ray's Forecast book is a must read.” - Shane R., Alpine, UT (USA), Individual trader/investor - business owner, 20 years trading stocks & futures.
Thanks to MMA, I have closed 36 trades this year with a win rate of 86% (the remaining 14% were due errors on my part, as I have been actively trading less than a year). Ray’s predictive ability is remarkable. No one predicts more accurately. I highly recommend his daily newsletter which covers many markets. It appears expensive, but it’s a serious money-maker. My advice: get it now. Robert W, San Antonio, Texas, trades index funds, gold, silver, select stocks, less than a year.
January 11-12, 2019: “Trends for 2019,” sponsored by Astrodata, Zurich, Switzerland. Friday night lecture: “Jupiter in Sagittarius, Neptune in Pisces: Is It a Bubble or a Crash?” For much of 2019, Jupiter will be in its ruling sign of Sagittarius, and Neptune will be in its ruling sign of Pisces. Each, by itself, would normally be positive from the economies and stock markets of the world. But in 2019, these two planets will be in a challenging square aspect to one another. What does this mean for the world economy in 2019?
Saturday workshop, Jan 12, in Zurich: “Forecasts for Financial Markets in 2019.” Based on the Forecast 2019 Book, Ray will present his outlook for the world geopolitical and financial landscape in 2019. He will discuss various cycles – both rhythmic and geocosmic – to support his outlook. In this workshop, he will also share his forecast for several financial markets, including Gold, the USA and German/Swiss stock markets, crude oil, and the Euro/U.S. Dollar. If you are an investor or trader, or just interested in the correlation between cycles in human activity and the cosmos, this is a workshop you will not want to miss!
January 19, 2019, Amsterdam, Netherlands, “Forecasts 2019 and Beyond: The Reversal of the Current Economic Cycle,” sponsored by Schogt Market Timing. This conference will take place at the Hotel Breukelen outside of Amsterdam, and feature Karen Hammaker-Zondag, Irma Schogt, and Raymond Merriman. For more information, please visit www.markettiming.nl or take the direct link https://goo.gl/VPxGSe for conference details.
February 9, 2019: MMA’S FORECAST 2019 LIVE WEBINAR, will take place on Saturday, February 9, 2019, 11:00 AM (MST). This is 1:00 PM EST, 6:00 PM GMT. In the comfort of your own home or office, you can tune into Raymond Merriman’s annual worldwide webinar on “Forecast 2019.” This broadcast will address subjects from this year’s Forecast 2019 Book, with updates on financial markets since the book was written in November 2018. Outlooks for the U.S. stock market, Gold and Silver, crude oil, and currencies will be discussed. Cost is $45.00, and includes the slides of the presentation, plus a downloadable MP4 recording of the event. To reserve your spot in this live webinar broadcast, contact us directly at 1-248-626-3034, 800-MMA-3349, or email us at firstname.lastname@example.org. You may register via our website at https://mmacycles.com > Products > Webinars. If unable to attend live, you can still sign up, as everyone who orders the Webinar will recieve the MP4 recording, following the live event.
March 9, 2019: 10:30 AM – 4 PM. Nova Southwestern University, 3301 College Ave, Carl DeSantis Bldg, Ft. Lauderdale, FL. This a 3-4 hour workshop on “Forecast 2019,” by Raymond Merriman. Contact 954-296-1211. $50.
April 26, 2019: Boulder, Colorado. “Forecasts for Financial Markets and USA Economy and Political Situation.” Details and contact information to be announced shortly, sponsored by ROMA.
June 8-16, 2019: “Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles,” Beijing, China. A two-weekend intensive Market Trading workshop/retreat with Raymond Merriman. This 32-hour intensive workshop will focus on the primary cycle and its phases – the half-primary, major, and trading cycles - and how to determine when they are due. Then, we will identify geocosmic signatures – Levels 1, 2, and 3 – as the basis for calculating CRDs (Critical Reversal Dates), to narrow the time band down for an important cycle reversal. Within that time, we will identify and discuss specific technical and charting tools that will further enhance the timing of a major market reversal, and the price target range to look for. In this analysis, we will also explore the use of 60- 30-, and 5-minutes charts for even more accurate entry and exit points. With these tools, we will then construct a daily and/or weekly trading plan, as used in MMA Daily and Weekly Reports, using current market situations. Examples of several markets – including the USA and China stock markets, Gold, and crude oil will be used to illustrate these market timing techniques, with forecasts for the future. The workshop will take place on the weekends of June 8-9 and June 15-16 in Beijing. During the week, participants will have the option of taking tours with other MMA students to exciting areas of China. The cost for this unique and valuable trading retreat is $4000 (discounts will be available to subscribers of MMA Reports). For further information, please contact MMA at email@example.com or call 1-248-626-3034 or 1-800-MMA-3349.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence potentially affect financial markets.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.