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REVIEW, PREVIEW, AND BOTH SHORT- AND LONGER-TERM THOUGHTS
Mr. Powell (Fed Chair) said interest rates are “just below” broad estimates of a neutral level – a setting designed to neither speed nor slow economic growth. Investors read his comments to suggest that the Fed increases might stop sooner or happen more slowly, though he didn’t say so directly. Stocks climbed immediately after Mr. Powell’s midday remarks. – “Powell Remarks Spark Market Rally,” Amrith Romkumar and Nick Timeron, Wall Street Journal, November 29, 2018
Stocks closed a volatile month with strong gains on Friday on renewed bets the U.S. and China could strike a deal on trade. – Fred Imbert, “Dow Ends Volatile November With More Than 150-Point Rally on Hopes of a U.S.-China Trade Deal at G-20,” https://www.cnbc.com, November 30. (Note: DJIA ended up 199 points on Friday)
Last week was a good omen for stocks, reflecting the recent ingress of Jupiter into its ruling sign of Sagittarius. In fact, both the Sun and Mercury conjoined Jupiter last week, and the stellium had a spectacular reaction with global equity markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average skyrocketed 617 points on Wednesday, November 28, following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments about interest rates and the economy approaching the desired “neutral level.” That was the fifth largest up day in the history of the DJIA, and only two points shy of the fourth largest one-day point gain. The DJIA continued higher into the close of the week on hopes of a breakthrough this weekend in the trade dispute between China and the U.S.A., during the G-20 summit taking place in Buenos Aires.
The only problem from the cosmic viewpoint is that these optimistic and hopeful themes of Jupiter and Sagittarius begin losing some of their luster now. Mercury is retrograde, which is challenging enough with the unpredictability of the Trickster likely to be in full force. But it retreats back into the more skeptical sign of Scorpio on Saturday morning, December 1, and Venus also joins it in Scorpio on Sunday, December 2. By Monday, the Moon also enters Scorpio, so what was joyous and happy this past week may start out next week with a more somber assessment of what is real and possible. Still, the Sun and Jupiter will remain in Sagittarius for the next three weeks, and on Thursday, December 6, Mercury will end its retrograde cycle, so this is still another opportunity for the president to pull off his magic and show the world what “The Art of Deal” is all about. Or not. After all, Jupiter and Sagittarius are well-known for their promises. They are also well-known for promising much more than they often deliver.
Many of the world’s stock indices showed healthy gains last week, following their lows of the prior week. The DJIA and Japanese Nikkei indices, for example, were both up over 1000 points from their lows of November 21-23 to their highs of November 29-30. The lows were just 1-3 trading days after Venus ended its retrograde motion, and the highs of Friday were exactly on the day that Venus formed an opposition to Uranus, another powerful reversal signature. It appears there is a lot riding on Mr. Trump’s ability to “close the deal.” It may not happen this weekend and if it does, it may be subject to revision soon afterwards.
Bitcoin continued very much in the news as it dropped to 3457 on November 25. That now represents a loss of 82.2% from its all-time high of less than one year ago at 19,458 on December 18, 2017. That also means Bitcoin is in the 77-93% loss-of-value range that has defined historical crisis periods of various financial markets throughout history, such as Silver in 1980-1991, the NASDAQ in 2000 through 2002, and Crude Oil in 2008 into early 2009. Many now fear that Bitcoin will go extinct.
Crude Oil, which didn’t go extinct in 2008-2009, was also in the news last week as it fell to a new yearly low of 49.41 on Thursday, November 29. It is still not going to go extinct. It’s just a cycle, a long-term cycle, but not as long a term of a cycle as was present in 2008-2009. I think the case with Bitcon will be the same as it was with Crude Oil, the NASDAQ, and Silver; however, it took years for each to come back to where it was before. These markets usually need time to build a base, and a sense of faith, after their near-death episodes. But they do come back, unless they are tulips.
SHORT-TERM GEOCOSMICS AND LONGER-TERM THOUGHTS
“I think we are really close to doing something with China, but I don’t know that I want to do it,” Trump told reporters. “Because what we have right now is billions and billions of dollars coming into the United States in the form of tariffs and taxes, so I really don’t know.” – Liz Moyer, “Trump Says He Thinks China Wants to Make a Deal,” https://.www.cnbc.com, November 29, 2018.
In a trade war, both sides lose. “It’s just the winner loses less,” said Alan Greenspan. “Insane. Why we’re doing it probably is very deep in the psyche of someone….” This foolish policy is definitely behind the astounding 94% drop in the sale of American soybeans to China, by far the world’s biggest buyer of soybeans. Trump has launched a bailout program, (but) it’s not nearly enough to cover farmers’ losses… “Trade wars are good and easy to win,” tweeted Trump in March. Crazy-town, here we are. -Froma Harrop, “Is the Economy on the Direct Line to Crazytown?” Arizona Republic, November 28, 2018.
This promises to be another bizarre week, filled with promises, hype, maybe threats, possibly a lot of blame or lip-biting to keep them shut, and no facts. It will paint pictures and deliver narratives that are probably fantasy. You cannot believe what you will hear or what is promised. This is the week that Mars will conjoin Neptune in Pisces, and the new Moon in Sagittarius that will square both. This is a combination that can have an impact on the Crude Oil market, for both Sagittarius and Pisces are signs which have rulership over Crude Oil, along with their ruling planets Jupiter and Neptune.
But here is why it may be crazy and unbelievable. Mars is aggressive, but Neptune and Pisces are passive. So, what you will witness is a heavy case of passive-aggression on the part of world leaders, trying to put on a good front by endorsing things (like agreements) that they don’t really believe. “We are really close to a deal but I don’t know that I want to do it.” What? They are acting, and they are exaggerating (Sagittarius), but not very convincingly. They are mad, but mostly mad at themselves for not doing what they want to do. They will act like they are in agreement and they want to appear unified and at peace with one another (Neptune, Pisces), when below the surface they may be seething (Mars) that they couldn’t get the deals they really wanted. How will the markets respond? It depends on whether they believe the words and the show, or not. If they believe it, stock indices can soar next week, especially with the “irrational exuberance” of the Sun in Sagittarius square Mars and Neptune. Or, the opposite can happen if the investment community senses that this is not going to work, if it is all too abstract, lacking in details and specifics; in that case the negative side of these aspects manifests as lost trust leading to hysteria and panic.
By the way, these themes don’t apply only to world leaders on the world stage this weekend, but to all of us. The challenge for everyone this week is to be honest, forthright, sincerely helpful, and authentic. Anything less than that will be read as deceptive, and could lead one into crazytown.
MMA Current Announcements
NOTE 1: The monthly MMA and ICR Cycles Reports are both coming out this week!
THE MONTHLY MMA CYCLES REPORT contains our future outlook for U.S. stock indices (DJIA and S&P futures), Gold, Silver, Treasuries, Euro Currency, Crude Oil and Soybeans, plus MMA’s original geocosmic critical reversal dates (CRDs) and Solar/Lunar reversal dates over the next several weeks for DJIA, Gold, and Silver. This May issue will also have an analysis of Live Cattle by Massimo Moras, MMTA graduate and analyst and an updated report on Cannabis stocks. This will be the last MMA Cycles Report issue that will offer Live Cattle and Cannabis analysis. They will, now switch to be regular features in the new ICR International Commodities Cycles Report, starting on July 2. That report will also include analysis on Corn, Wheat, Coffee, and Sugar markets as well as the XAU Gold and Silver Mining Index. The monthly MMA Japan Cycles report will also be released this week, covering the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen. If you are not a subscriber to the monthly MMA Cycles Reports and wish a copy of this month’s outlook for financial markets, consider taking out a subscription NOW. Please visit https://mmacycles.com > Services > Subscription Services for more information.
The Monthly MMTA International Cycles Report (ICR) will also be issued this week. This issue will include analysis on Coffee and Sugar, which will then be moved over to the new monthly ICR Commodities Report in the next issue. The monthly ICR report is probably the best kept secret for the timing and cyclical analysis of several international markets available today. It is an excellent report, written by several graduates and students of MMA’s classic market timing methodology, including Mark Shtayerman (San Diego), Izabella Suleymanova (San Diego), and Ulric Aspegren (Sweden). This issue of ICR contains an in-depth analysis of the XAU index (Gold and Silver Mining stocks), the U.S. Dollar (DXY), British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD), the Australian stock index (ASX), the London FTSE stock index, the Russell 2000 U.S. stock index (RUT), Corn (C) and Wheat (W). And for now, it will also include Coffee and Sugar. Starting with the next issue, this will become the new ICR Financial Markets Report, less Corn, Wheat, and XAU, and will instead include the Chinese Shanghai Composite Stock Index and Hang Seng of Hong Kong Stock Index (see below). For more information, call us at 248-626-3034, or 1-800-662-3349. Or, please visit http:// mmacycles.com/ > Subscription Services.
NOTE 2: The New ICR Cycles’ Reports from MMA are Coming!!! Starting on July 2nd, we are going to expand our International Cycles Report (ICR) into two reports... ICR Financials and ICR Commodities. Each report will be covering 7 markets, and will cost, as follows (but there will be a special introductory offer – see below):
Cost: $325/ Year or $66/ 2 Months
Markets Covered: ASX (Australian Stock Index), RUT (Russell 2000), SSE (Chinese Shanghai Stock Composite), HSI (Hang Seng Index), AUD (Australian Dollar), DXY (US Dollar), and GBP (British Pound)
Release Date: Tuesday July 2, 2019
Cost: $325/ Year or $66/ 2 Months
Markets Covered: LC (Live Cattle), MJ (Cannabis), XAU (Gold and Silver), KT (Coffee), KA (Sugar), C (Corn), and W (Wheat)
Release Date: Wednesday July 3, 2019
If you sign up for either ICR Report by June 30th, you will also receive – at no additional cost – the May issue of our current ICR Report, which contains our initial analysis of Coffee, Corn, Wheat, and Sugar. As a final BONUS, we will send you both the ICR Financials Report and the ICR Commodities Report in July so that you can see and experience both of our new reports. That’s TWO reports- at no additional cost- just for trying our new report. SAVE 20% NOW! If you wish to sign up for both the ICR Financials Report and ICR Commodities Report, we are offering a 20% off the yearly rate for both reports, valid until June 1. Instead of $650 for both reports, your cost will be $520- a savings of $130! Use code ICR at check out to receive the discount. For further information, visit https://mmacycles.com > Services > Subscription Services.
NOTE 3: MMA’S DAILY AND WEEKLY SUBSCRIPTION REPORTS ARE THE BEST WAY TO KEEP UP WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING MARKETS! If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you will be interested in MMA’s Weekly or Daily Market reports. The weekly reports give an in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro/Yen cash, Swiss Franc, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver, and Bitcoin. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as the Euro Currency, Japanese Yen, Bitcoin, T-Notes, Gold and Silver, plus GLD and SLV (the Gold and Silver ETF’s). Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders and shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the Daily report also includes the Weekly report. For further information, visit https://mmacycles.com > Services > Subscription Services.
For any questions, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org or call (248) 626-3034, or (800) MMA-3349.
June 8-16, 2019: IT’S ON! June 8-16, 2019: “Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles,” with Raymond Merriman in Beijing, China. This special 2-weekend workshop will take place at the Beijing Broadcasting Tower Hotel, No.14 Jianguomenwai Da Jie, Chaoyang, 100022 Beijing, China. This will be two intensive weekend Market Trading workshops focusing on the identifying the primary cycle and its phases used in trading several financial markets, with the emphasis on the U.S. and Chinese Shanghai stock indices and Gold (other markets will be included as well). The course will then take participants through the steps of narrowing the time band down for trading cycle highs and lows by applying geocosmic and solar/lunar studies. Once in the time band for a reversal, students will then learn how to apply various chart patterns and technical studies to identify the setup for optimal risk/reward opportunities. The workshop will take place on the weekends of June 8-9 and June 15-16 in Beijing. During the week, participants will have the option of taking tours with other MMA students to exciting areas of China. The cost for this unique and valuable 2-weekend trading course is $4000 (discounts will be available to subscribers of MMA Reports). For further information, please contact MMA at email@example.com or call 1-248-626-3034 or 1-800-MMA-3349. Or, for a complete description of each course, go to:
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence potentially affect financial markets.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.