Raymond Merriman's Weekly Preview

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Posted by in Raymond Merriman's Weekly Preview on March 03, 2018 .

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Trump announced Thursday that he will impose a 25 percent tariff on steel and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum as early as next week. “Trump Doubles Down: 'Trade Wars are Good, and Easy to Win,'” www.cnbc.com, March 2, 2018.

 

He took credit for the stock market’s spectacular rise in 2017. Now Donald Trump may have to own what could turn out to be the beginning of the...

Posted by in Raymond Merriman's Weekly Preview on February 24, 2018 .

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"Investors eye 3% on the Ten-Year Notes (i.e. 120 area) with concern as it intersects a trendline that has led to crashes/bear markets since 1980," Thomas Lee, founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said in a note. "But, as we noted a few weeks ago, interest rates are moving higher from ultra-low levels and like 1950s-1960s, this period saw higher rates [and]...

Posted by in Raymond Merriman's Weekly Preview on February 17, 2018 .

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We've clearly been arguing for a while now that holding balance sheet risk in an era of rising interest rates and higher market volatility has limited upside but significant downside. Andrew Lapthorne, Société General, Feb 12, 2018.

 

"It (Trump’s budget) fails as sound fiscal policy," said Justin Bogie this week, of the notably conservative Heritage Foundation's senior policy...

Posted by in Raymond Merriman's Weekly Preview on February 10, 2018 .

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The dollar rose on Friday, putting it on track for its strongest week against a basket of currencies in nearly 15 months as some traders piled into the greenback in a week of tremendous swings felt in stock and bond markets around the world. “Dollar Poised for Best Week in 15 Months Amid Market Turmoil,” Reuters, February 9, 2018.

 

“Additionally, February 7, +/- 3 trading...

Posted by in Raymond Merriman's Weekly Preview on January 27, 2018 .

 

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“I think our dollar is getting too strong, and partially that is my fault because people have confidence in me,” Trump told the Wall Street Journal. “But that’s hurting – that will hurt ultimately.” – Jennifer Calfas, www.time.com, April 13, 2017.

 

The dollar index was slightly lower, after falling sharply Wednesday on the initial comments from Treasury...

Posted by in Raymond Merriman's Weekly Preview on January 19, 2018 .

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Gold prices rose half a percent (early) on Friday as the dollar labored near a three-year low amid heightened fears of a U.S. government shutdown, but the precious metal was still on track for its first weekly drop in six weeks. - Reuters, “Gold Up as Dollar Hurt by US Government Shutdown Fears,” January 19, 2018.

Several stock markets of the world continued their surge to new...

Posted by in Raymond Merriman's Weekly Preview on January 13, 2018 .

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Jerome Powell (soon-to-be new Fed Chair, is) confronting some agonizing trade-offs in the next year or two. What if low inflation calls for low interest rates but those low interest rates make an eventual, destructive asset bust more likely? Should he lean against an incipient bubble by raising rates faster now, or plan to mop up the mess if assets collapse later? – Greg Ip, “For...

Posted by in Raymond Merriman's Weekly Preview on January 06, 2018 .

 

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REVIEW AND PREVIEW

 

The U.S. economy added a disappointing 148,000 jobs in December while the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent, according to a closely watched Labor Department report Friday. Economists surveyed by Reuters had been expecting nonfarm payrolls to grow by 190,000. The total was well below the November pace of 252,000. An unexpected loss of 20,000 retail positions during the holiday...