NOTE: Monday, May 27, is Memorial Day in the U.S., a holiday when the nation honors its warriors, those who died while serving in the United States Armed Forces. Markets will be closed in the U.S.
Review
“Attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”
—Warren Buffett, as quoted by Jason Zweig in “What Our Brains Know About Stocks—but Won’t Tell Us,” Wall Street Journal, May 24, 2024.
Higher real wages are an antidote to inflation. But voters tend to regard higher pay as the just reward for harder work, not as gratuitously higher living standards. If better pay is perceived as the result of personal endeavor, politicians receive no credit.
—Dr. Paul Donovan, “The Politics of Economics,” UBS Weekly Blog, May 24, 2024.
Everything is possible. Nothing is permitted.
—Robert Thibodeau of Mayflower Bookshop, Berkley, Michigan.
We anticipated this would be a wild and chaotic time for financial markets; indeed, it is starting out that way. The convergence and translation of the Sun and Venus over the Jupiter/Uranus conjunction in the “money sign” of Taurus corresponded to a sudden and sharp reversal in many financial markets last week, including equities and precious metals. Both of these sectors made new all-time or multi-year highs last week, then experienced sudden reversals to the downside. Is this a sign of trouble ahead as Jupiter starts its one-year trek through the volatile and changeable sign of Gemini?
Last week’s column asked: “How long can this euphoria and bullish behavior last? With the emphasis in Taurus, traders and investors are prone to be complacent. That may be an unwise choice of activity, as the convergence of all the planetary benefics in Taurus is coming to an end.” Last week, we got an initial trigger that trouble is brewing in these markets. Bitcoin and Ethereum may be the exception.
There is no confirmation yet that the gong has been rung on these bull markets. You seldom hear the gong —or realize the gong has been rung—until panic sets in. Yet the behavior of markets last week is typical of how bull markets often behave near their end. There can be false breakouts initially. But when stock indices are this late in their four-year cycle, every bearish trigger has to be respected as a possible gong ringer. For example, over 90% of four-year U.S. stock market cycles since 1893 have topped out by their 49th month. May is the 50th month since the 4-year cycle began with the “COVID-19 Pandemic Panic of March 2020.” Furthermore, the 4-year cycle trough has occurred by the 56th month in over 90% of those cases. Thus, the U.S. stock market is due for both a crest and a trough within the next six months, and the crest will happen first.
Short-Term Geocosmics
Credit is the giving of buying power. The buying power is granted in exchange for a promise to pay it back, which is debt. (The) question of whether rapid credit/debt growth is a good or bad thing hinges in what that credit produces and how the debt is repaid (i.e., how the debt is serviced).
—Ray Dalio, Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises: The Archetypal Big Debt Cycle, Bridgewater, 2018.
Commissioner Danny Werfel appeared before the House Appropriations Committee recently and told legislators that the IRS faces financial collapse…. In other words, the IRS doesn’t think the $60 billion bonus it received from Congress in 2022 is enough, though it is supposed to last through 2031. The IRS has a brilliant solution for this cash burn: Add more to the pile. Instead of explaining where the money went, Mr. Werfel asked the House to look away and grant his team another massive funding boost, this time through 2034.
—The Editorial Board, “The IRS Money Hole Gets Deeper,” Wall Street Journal Opinion: Review and Outlook, May 22, 2024.
So the question pertinent to the quotes above is: Did the $60 billion credit (bonus) given to the IRS produce anything of value for the debt incurred? For that matter, is anything of lasting value (as an investment) being created for all the debt the governments of the world (especially in the U.S.) are taking on? At what point does this debt explosion without a comparable (and ideally, more favorable) return of value result in an economic crisis?
We have discussed the history of the Jupiter/Uranus 14-year synodic cycle and its correlation to highs in stock markets 1-7 months afterwards (and usually 1-4 months afterwards). That cycle began when the conjunction took place on April 20, and we are now well into the 1-4 month aftermath when new highs usually occur (and as of last week, they have). However, there is another important long-term cycle to discuss, known as the first 1/8 phase (or harmonic) of the 32-37 year Saturn/Pluto cycle now underway, from May 6, 2024, to January 26, 2025.
Why is this important? Firstly, the first 1/8 phase is the “abort” stage of the cycle that starts with the conjunction. It is a time when one reflects back upon decisions made—and new directions that were initiated—during the time of the conjunction. Those decisions are now tested, and another decision to either continue in that direction or abort it is demanded. Secondly, Saturn/Pluto has to do with debt and credit. It correlates well with the interest rate cycle when central banks either tighten or loosen monetary policy, which in turn affects financial markets.
The conjunction of Saturn and Pluto occurred on January 12, 2020. Within a month, the stock market had topped out, and the coronavirus pandemic crisis erupted, which led to extremely accommodative monetary and governmental stimulus policies as the stock market tanked. The nation’s debt skyrocketed. In fact, the debt of many nations skyrocketed then and was a primary cause of the soaring inflation that followed a year later throughout the world. Central banks were late, but they finally started increasing interest rates to fight inflation. Now, the Fed and other central banks of the world are reviewing those decisions in light of the fact that worldwide debt has continued to explode despite the comparatively high interest rates. But it does seem to be pulling the pace of inflation down.
However, there is another subtle geocosmic issue that may be involved here. Saturn/Pluto can also coincide with a “black swan” event that suddenly destabilizes markets. No one likes to—or even can consistently—predict a black swan event. Yet this is often the case when a market has its first 1/8 sub-cycle (harmonic) underway of a longer-term planetary cycle, especially one involving Saturn, Uranus, and/or Pluto with one another.
Remember that the first 1/8 harmonic (semi-square) of the Jupiter/Saturn cycle occurred in 2022, just before Russia invaded Ukraine and started the seeds of a possible World War III (yes, I know, many believe the United States and NATO started this war by not honoring their agreements made in 1989—1990). But this Saturn/Pluto aspect is more of a true “black swan” event possibility because the conjunction coincided with an unexpected generational pandemic (as well as the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, which could have started a world war as well).
During that period, the U.S. stock market fell nearly 40% in one month, and the economy fell into a sudden, sharp, but short-lived recession. At the same time, the U.S. took on huge new debt in the form of drastic new stimulus packages and prolonged (too long) monetary easing measures.
The first 1/8 phase (45°) of a planetary cycle is when similar themes return that were present during the conjunction period. It could be magnified this time because a 4-year stock market cycle (low) is also due during this planetary phase.
We are also coming to the end of favorable Jupiter transiting aspects with a trine to Pluto next weekend, June 2. From there, Jupiter will begin its march towards the three-passage series of square aspects to Saturn, August 2024 through June 2025. It’s a different collective psychology than the soft and euphoric aspects Jupiter has been expressing with Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto.
With hard aspects involving Saturn, it is probably wise to be prepared and have a plan. Regarding trading and investing, I find it smarter to risk protecting oneself too early rather than too late. I also find with Jupiter, in any aspect to Saturn, that wise people are more apt to be more cautious than reckless. A constructive plan for the future would be to make sure you have cash to buy goods (such as stocks and perhaps commodities) when they are offered at more affordable prices, along the lines of the Warren Buffett quote given at the beginning of this week’s column.
ANNOUNCEMENTS
NOTE 1: The MMA Solar/Lunar Forecasting App For iPhone Users Is Now Out! The beta-testing stage is complete on the first MMA app for short-term traders. This is the newest and ultimate market timing app for active traders, based on the most recent historical data from MMA, “The Leader in Market Timing Services and Products!”
-Here are some of the valuable features that are available on the new MMA Solar/Lunar Reversal App:
-Solar/lunar reversal weighted value scores on each day for the DJIA, Gold, and Silver
-Values based on the daily price movements of the last 90+ years on the DJIA (and decades of prices in Gold and Silver) and their historical correlation to isolated highs or lows from which the market has reversed 3% or more (4% in Silver)
-Historical frequency of reversals broken down into “All,” “Only Highs,” and “Only Lows” categories
-Indicates the “Big Range Day” scores for short-term (day) traders
-Displays the daily weighted value reversal scores for the upcoming two weeks
-Notifications (optional) of the exact time the Moon and Sun change signs (new weighted values scores go into effect)
-Informative FAQ and a section on “How to Trade Markets Using MMA’s Solar/Lunar Values – the Setup!”
-Very attractive, easy-to-use, and convenient app for iPhone users
This week’s initial launch comes with an introductory discount offer for MMA Cycles Report subscribers. Use the QR code given to you to get this discount. A “hard launch” for everyone else will take place in about one week, with a similar discount offer and QR code. If you don’t want to wait for the hard launch, you can simply type in “Merriman” on the App Store search bar, and it will let you order without the discount. Then, when you get the code, you can apply the discount for up to two months after your initial one-month order ends. The code is good for a 2-month special offer once you apply it (prior to August 23).
If you are a short-term swing trader or someone looking for high-probability dates based on historical studies that identify isolated lows or highs in the DJIA, Gold, or Silver markets, this is the app to have! Here is a chart showing how it has identified swing trades over the past 90 days with an 80% correlation. The app gave 12 signals over 13 weeks, and two were over a weekend. Eight of the ten other signals coincided with fine, tradeable reversals from isolated lows or highs. It gave another signal on May 23—24; however, that is not shown here.
NOTE 2: Recordings Are Now Available For The Annual MMA Mid-Year Webinar that took place last weekend!!! This was a very important webinar, given that our market timing studies are starting to show signs that the bull market in U.S. stocks is mature. In fact, it was amazing how all of the MMA analysts saw similar impressive trading and investment opportunities coming up. The correlation between cycles in currencies and precious metals was particularly illuminating. This broadcast was hosted by Raymond Merriman and included exceptional updates on the following markets with top MMA market analysts: Stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin (Merriman), T-Notes and Ethereum (Gianni Di Poce), Euro and U.S. Dollar (Ulric Aspegrén), Copper, (Matthieu Kaiser), Crude Oil and Silver (Pouyan Zolfagharnia), and Soybeans (Wyatt Fellows). To order a copy of this very timely and exciting event, click here.
NOTE 3: The MMA 2024 Investment Retreat Is Now Open For Registration!!! This special event will take place at the Rikli Balance Hotel, located in the Julian Alps region of beautiful Lake Bled, Slovenia. This will be MMA’s first investment retreat in Europe since 2015. You won’t want to miss this chance to hear the outlooks and wealth-building strategies using MMA market timing methods by top MMA analysts Raymond Merriman (USA), Gianni Di Poce (USA), Ulric Aspegrén (Switzerland), Pouyan Zolfagharnia (UK), Irma Schogt (Netherlands), Matthieu Kaiser (France), Rita Perea (USA), Vincent Wang (Singapore), Wyatt Fellows (USA), plus special guest speakers Claude Weiss (Switzerland) and Aleksandar Imsiragic (Serbia). Special attention will be given to the stock markets of the USA, Germany, China, and Japan, plus Gold, Silver, Copper, Bitcoin, Wheat, Crude Oil, Real Estate, and interest rates. There is nothing quite like a life-altering MMA Investment Retreat! The cost is $3500, but only $3000 if you register before August 1, live, in person, or online. Sign up early if you wish to attend in person to secure one of the limited rooms reserved for our group at the fabulous Rikli Balance Hotel right on Lake Bled. To register for this spectacular event, click here. To see the full brochure, schedule, topics, and speakers’ bios, click here.
NOTE 4: The May Issue Of The MMA Monthly Cycles Report Plus+, edited by Pouyan Zolfagharnia, will be issued this week. This market letter has become a very popular addition to the MMA Cycles Report (less technical, more visual, and contains horoscopes of current importance, high-quality analysis, and updates on MMA Cycles Report markets). The mid-month addendum to the MMA Cycles Report has stunning graphics and charts (people love it!) and is very readable. It contains more illustrations and references to geocosmics than most MMA Cycles reports and is only available for subscription to those who also subscribe to the MMA Monthly Cycles Report. If you wish to try this month’s addendum, along with the latest issue of the MMA Monthly Cycles Report, sign up online at the link above. Subscription for a monthly copy of both reports is $55. That will give you both the most recent May copy of the MMA Cycles Report and the monthly MMA Cycles Report Plus+ addendum coming out this week. For further information and ordering instructions, please click here.
Note 5: The MMA Weekly YouTube show, Geocosmic Week in Review and Look Ahead, with Gianni Di Poce, is conducted on Wednesday evenings! Each 5- to 20-minute FREE episode reviews the previous week’s market activity and offers a preview of the geocosmic signatures in effect for the coming week and beyond.
NOTE 6: MMA’s Free Weekly Column Podcast Is Available On SPOTIFY, APPLE, AND AMAZON! Now you can listen to a podcast of this weekly column by Thomas Miller on Saturdays! Just follow Merriman Market Analyst on Spotify or Apple to listen to all our episodes. A new podcast episode will be released every weekend. This is a FREE service and is available to everyone. Check out our podcasts on Apple, Spotify, and Amazon Music. It makes for great listening!
NOTE 7: The MMA Cycles Chinese Stock Market Report Was Issued on May 20, and MMA’s Monthly ETF Report was issued on May 22. For subscription information, please click here and scroll down to these reports.
EVENTS
September 19–22, 2024: MMA’s 2024 Investment Retreat. Save the Dates!!! We will be hosting our 2024 Investment Retreat in Europe for the first time since 2015. You won’t want to miss this chance to meet with the top MMA analysts (plus special guest speakers Claude Weiss and Aleksandar Imsiragic) live and hear our long-term investment and wealth-building strategies using MMA market timing methods. There is nothing quite like a life-altering MMA Investment Retreat! The location is the beautiful Lake Bled in Slovenia, a premier (and affordable) destination in the Julian Alps, with a historic castle nestled in the mountains where the Saturday evening banquet will take place. The cost is $3500, but only $3000 if you register early. Registration is now open! The event will be available in person or online, but registration is limited for those who want to attend in person. Sign up early if you wish to attend in person to secure your room at the fabulous Rikli Balance Hotel, which will be the site for this event. For a brochure of the event, click here.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from the perspective of a cycles analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and their potential effect on financial markets.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.